Updating the bigger picture. Presumed wave (iv) came right to the 38.2 retrace target (shown on smaller timeframes) and reversed. This rhymes with the pervious minute circle wave iv of a larger degree. However, note that this decline is nearing its long-term completion on positive divergence. Such divergence can persist thru wave (v) of v on new price lows. Beginning of this decline in Aug/Sep '15 was difficult to count, and wave (ii) was a complex w-x-y-x-z. Larger-degree fibs are difficult to measure, and UNG's decay further complicates the measurements. Bottom line: DO NOT risk too much here, and DO NOT overstay your welcome if you're still in this short. I anticipate the reversal could be sharp, once decline completes.