The $20 jump in the last two weeks has been great, but I don't think it will last. There have been a number of rumors over merger talks, and with other railroads positive earnings; confidence was added to UNP. I consider this to be an excellent long term stock in 5Y - 10Y range, but if you trade the dips, there may be some excitement coming up for you.
Drawn is fibonacci guesswork, taking the recent low and attempting to predict the highest point for the short term. I came up with 123. News may make this obsolete so use multiple factors as well in your decision making.