We are dead cat bouncing. #Biden is attempting to reduce the price of oil via favourable taxes so companies will produce more oil. This could help CPI moderate. Supply chains remain crippled, so this dead cat rolls over on the next piece of bad news. This could come in the form of unemployment start to accelerate. In prior recessions, unemployment typically spikes going from very low to very high levels over a short period of months at which point, welcome to HYPERstagflation that make the 1970s look tame.
The upshot is #Bitcoin and stocks can fall a lot lower than current levels. Using the rationale that Bitcoin has already fallen 75% so, "How much further can it fall?" can lead to huge sums lost. In 2014 and 2018, it fell -87.5% and -84%, respectively. If Bitcoin were to fall again to such levels, it would represent another -50% drop from -75% if it fell to -87.5% off peak, not just -12.5%.
@BearManalow, I am cautiously long crypto , with one eye on the exit / sell button. Seems like the start of some sort of recovery. Maybe a FEd pivot is closer than we think ??
BearManalow
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@BallaJi, well said. I'm seeing this on BTC now if we can't clear the 12hr 50ema.
Also, I read that the economy is inefficient with too low unemployment, so once we shed some jobs, that could be "the" indicator for re-entry or adding more to your longs. Thoughts on that correlation?