UPS sets up to be a low-risk short!

The market has been in a never-ending buy-the-dip mode lately. With the Fed out of the picture and Trump tweeting about a China trade deal everyday, the stock market has seen very few decliners. Picking shorts has been a losing battle for 8 weeks now. I've found that it's never a good idea to arbitrarily pick tops unless I can give myself a solid technical setup with a decent fundamental reason to do so. In this case, UPS is meeting both of these conditions.

Like many stocks, UPS went into a classical head and shoulders pattern, which it broke down from. It has since retraced all the way back to an important trendline (as it has now tested this trendline 7 times!). On Friday, XPO , another shipping and logistics company reported a bad quarter citing weakness in France and the UK. This news had a heavy read-through to FDX but not as much to UPS ( FDX was down 5% on the XPO news at one point). However, UPS has still failed to breakout above the shown trendline and has very little fundamental reason to do so. Although old news, Amazon has entered the shipping space and is now a direct competitor of UPS and FDX . This may be more of a reason to see less upside and more downside from the shipping stocks.

I think we can short UPS here around $111:
Target $104 (neckline of H&S )
Stop: Any close above the drawn trendline
Comment: UPS and FDX getting crushed here I guess in sympathy with STMP.
Comment: This trade is stopped out and UPS looks like it's going to break out of its range here.
Trade closed: stop reached
Great call!
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