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AwesomeAvani
Jul 27, 2023 3:11 AM

UPST mid-term VIEW Pre Earning LONG Long

NASDAQ:UPST1D
Upstart Holdings, Inc.NASDAQ

Description

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UPST on the daily chart with 2022-2023 in range shows a downtrend of more than 70% and

now a round bottom reversal. The volume profile shows the high volumes of the high volume

area which is relatively thin and mostly below the current price. That is to say, UPST has a

lot of volume voids to fill on its way back to $162 . The Triple EMA ( 200,100,50) shows

a convergence over a long interval followed by the reversal and now divergence. The

MACD indicator is upgoing as are the trends of the dual RS lines of the RSI indicator. I see

this as a long swing trade or investment while UPST is awaiting earnings next month.

For targets, I plan the red lines generated by the volume profite and so $94 and $161.

UPST is on my current favorite stock list. My current holding includes an option striking $51

for 8/4. I will roll that option over about 8/2 to avoid time decay. Additionally,

I will buy another option striking $75 and expiring on 9/15 costing about $950 at the

market price with the bid/ask spread of about 4%. I expect the combined two call optins

will yield on average 5-7% per trading day and may hold them through the earnings period.

The only downside risk is that an earnings beat is somehow already priced into UPST

and that the momentum will decelerate and fade. Buying the contact cheap and out of

the money seeks to manage that risk.

Trade active

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UPST is directionally undeterred I like it. See also my idea on NVDA, they are cousins and run the same paths.

Trade active

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UPST and NVDA are charging like bulls; will they get tired, worn down, breathless or injured in the process? My answer is NO.

OscillatorsMoving AveragesVolumeUPSTtechlongTECLtechnologystocksvolumeprofileanalysisroundbottomreversalreversaltrading
Comments
AwesomeAvani
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AwesomeAvani
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barchart.com/stocks/quotes/UPST The analysis on this link shows UPST to be a strong buy with high likelihood of trend continuation. I like the analysis I do see the observation that a reversal is possible and like to be watchful overall.
JB2143GER
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The economic environment is more than likely to provide a soft, predictable landing for Upstart, their AI software (aka product) seems to work, and Wall Street gets the application and impact that this product can have on the credit market (and this country runs on credit). IF they beat their earnings, they company will gradually take off, but if they post a profit, we might experience a take off like we saw in early 2021. That would be fun….
AwesomeAvani
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@JB2143GER, yes i understand some cautious reservation, I am looking for more altitude and see blue sky as an enticement for traders beyond fundamentals. Time will tell
for sure. In the meanwhile my options appear to be experiencing a hybrid between linear and parabolic "curve" and so all is good.
JB2143GER
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@AwesomeAvani Today was a great day, I will load up since I am expecting a similar scenario like we saw in February 2021. 6 cents EPS, the fundamentals are starting to shine through. I will take a look at the short interest that will be reported tomorrow and base my actions on these two data points.
AwesomeAvani
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UPST had a nice pop today Options over 100% for the day. Carrying full position without risk into next week looking for 10X in due time. I have expanded my expectations but am a realist.
availableFrien9244
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@AwesomeAvani, my only concern is high correlation to wider SP500 where we already got quite high and some cooling down would be healthy to recharge.
AwesomeAvani
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@availableFrien9244,
Quite high is a relative term so to what the present past or future? UPST's long term beta is 1.6 which is unremarkalbe. The pullback is now it just ended. Statistically, there won't be another one soon. UPST is likely to continue to move higher unless adverse earnings or a general market crash drops it I see neither of those scenarios occurring so I do not share your view. While healthy pullbacks are great they do not occur in profound strength whuch UPST exhibits. Bullruns are very sustainable. the bull recharges ( breathes enough to keep up with oxygen demand consistently and also concurrently while running) As A marathon runner and a medical professional, I know this. UPST is on a marathon, sometimes with some sprints for which the technical term is "Fartlek" I am enjoying the fartlek of UPST and so is my bank !$!$!$!$!!$!$!$!.....
availableFrien9244
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@AwesomeAvani, thank you for the above. I started loading UPST at around 18$ and kept adding on dips and taking profits on the go. Currently at 20% of my initial position but planning to load back in.
AwesomeAvani
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@availableFrien9244, An excellent trading strategy- I like to zig zag also = no doubt you have enjoyed substantial profits. I have made astronomical profits on UPST using call options with quick DTEs. The key is to be methodical and fine the right time frame that fits your time committment and have a lot of alerts in place to decrease screen time.
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