ridethepig
Short

No signs of a turn in 2yr US Bond Yields

TVC:US02Y   US Government Bonds 2 YR Yield
Here we are tracking the final chapter in Wave IV, having cratered through the 61.8% retracement of the 2016/19 uptrend the next level to track is 1.24%. I expect losses will be capped below here to keep broader risks from cascading out of control. Whilst to the topside, resistance can be found at 1.96%, a previous corrective high.

Markets have cornered the Fed, banks are hoarding funds which is leading to a Dollar liquidity shortage and the only way to avoid further spikes in overnight rates is by increasing excess reserves (pushing Dollar supply higher). If they do not bow down to markets (unexpected with Trump still pulling the strings) the decline we are seeing in equities will accelerate and send shockwaves through risk markets.

Best of luck all those positioning for the late cycle flows.
Jan 31
Comment: Finally...
Feb 25
Comment:

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Thoughts on what Fed's speech will entail tomorrow? If what you say is true, which markets represent it, he should be hawkish and hint and signs of increasing policy measures in the future. but like you said, with trump as caveat, we do not know, yes?
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