USO5Y - is the secular trend over and implications
I believe that the most important question - is the secular trend of falling interest rates over or not - is still without answer. In last 30 years, each time 5Y yield got overbought, i.e. RSI got to 80, the trend reversed relatively quickly: in 1994, 2000 and 2006. The first time falling interest rates signaled the start of one of the strongest equity bull markets in history, and the other two led to two of the most bloody equity bear markets.
Earlier this year it happened again, RSI got to 80, and rates can still reverse, as they did before, but to follow the pattern, they should do it about now. But watch out if they do not, if they keep climbing up despite overbought condition or just consolidate at these levels, as it could mean that the trend originated in the early 80's is over, and that we have a whole new environment.Broken trend line (even more apparent on 2Y) could be a tell.
The other question is: what about stocks? Will it be 1994 or 2000-2006 scenario, or neither. Higher rates are draining liquidity from the market, that's for sure, but will it kill it?
Earlier this year it happened again, RSI got to 80, and rates can still reverse, as they did before, but to follow the pattern, they should do it about now. But watch out if they do not, if they keep climbing up despite overbought condition or just consolidate at these levels, as it could mean that the trend originated in the early 80's is over, and that we have a whole new environment.Broken trend line (even more apparent on 2Y) could be a tell.
The other question is: what about stocks? Will it be 1994 or 2000-2006 scenario, or neither. Higher rates are draining liquidity from the market, that's for sure, but will it kill it?
