ridethepig

My Forecasts: Postscript

Long
Let me say this from the outset; within the 2's5's curve is a manual, given that I do not have a great deal of time, it is not possible for me to go into great dimensions or detail I have chosen. Instead we will have to content ourselves with the revolutionary charts/diagrams both before and of the period where I have gone into more details. The same is true of the other important charts ( VIX and Unemployment Claims) I refer to below. So now that we are all prepared and understand the knowledge, we must start to turn the dusty pages.

Firstly lets review a chart on which I stack tremendous value: I would not wish to enter into conspiracies. There have been a handful of inversions in the manuscripts over the past three decades which all speak historical truth in advance of the crisis. The advance in the 5 year suggests salvation from the Fed can only come in the medium term as the 2 year lags behind.



And now to the point around Alpha Protocol Seeking Immediate Extraction.

The 2's5's is already under the nature in an impulsive form. The prior three inversions (Housing and Credit, Dot com, GFC ) also suffered from a lagging Fed, that of being at least 10-12 months behind! This means that it is not uninteresting to highlight the totally overlooked inversion in 2019, it was a loud SOS signal that the economy was clearly running out of steam.

I was the one who was able to properly understand that manoeuvre in both Unemployment Claims and Vix ahead of time, calling the move from 12 to 85; with complex inversions, always look to play against the crowd. See our opening in US Claims and VIX before the fact:



Given we are facing both inflation via contractions in globalisation and deflation via advancements in technology etc all at the same time, it is causing a major paradox/dissonance across the board. It would serve no purpose to mention or not hint at what will happen next; my personal sense is that because the Fed ALWAYS lags behind, we will see another example of the long end of the curve driving the flows (for those interested in bull steepening and bear flattening I have also omitted the exclamations in bold). This would suggest that it is likely that we could be heading into an environment where you see nominal yields receiving a booster shot while real yields flatten causing further pressure on USD.