RealMacro

10 Year Bond Ready To Breakout

Long
TVC:US10   US Government Bonds 10 YR
I have never been in the inflation camp, simply bc of the following 2 reasons

1. Money chases yields, thus any kind of yield US bond offer will be eaten up quickly!

2. Household income/dissasvaving = Profi/Savings. What does that mean?
Helicopter money that one receives for the vast majority of the 95% will be spent.
normally that would be a good thing under conventional economics but that does
not hold true in the real world. Thus Profit/Savings are not reinvested back into
the productive economy resulting in a low velocity of money & higher asset prices
for the top 5% who own the majority of savings. This is not political at all it is
reality as we have observed over the many years of large deficits (currently 16.5% to GDP)

The proper way to view this reality is to divide GDP to total debt which tells us how much
GDP are we getting relative to money creation.


Clearly, we are getting less and less GDP for every new dollar created. As mentioned before
we are only getting $0.16 cents of GDP per $1 of money printing and falling rapidly while
Asset prices like stock bonds are exploding higher! Again Household income/dissasvaving = Profi/Savings
Thx to what I call the "SAVINGS BUBBLE." There are simply too many dollars chasing yields making it
nearly impossible for inflation & rates to rise in any meaningful way. Less productive investment with
higher and higher asset prices with lower and lower yields until it all SNAPS!!!

What is a SNAP? A panic selling of bonds that triggers economic armageddon in one part of the World
and spreads rapidly. When does it snap? No one can know what the masses decide to see reality and sell.
Think Tulips! It's not an IF, it's a when???
Comment: Bonds rising is a signal of fear.
Comment: I am in the inflation camp now looking at the commodity major breakout.
Comment: Textbook!

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