After a market meltdown, we are now in the situation of a nice correction, price action creating a W pattern and reached previous major gap opening.
Furthermore, from a technical perspective price reached the 61 golden ratio fib of the previous impulse, aligned with the 200MA and of course, previous structure which means there is a very high probability of finding strong supply zone around the 8300-8500 price area. A lot of confluence for the second wave to the down side.
From the fundamental view, the US is now providing bubble support for the businesses and overall economy, creating even more inflation by having 0 Interest rates and printing money. They have just delayed the crash up until now in order to keep the liquidity and delay the real meltdown. The Boom factor plays its role aside, America facing half a million people infected. New York having more than 180k might get quarantined and the banks could be also temporarliy closed in the near future. First quarter earning season is almost finished (latest on 15 May) and most probably companies will signal bad results due to the economical pandemic slowdown. Gold is trading at 1700, continuing strong on bullish momentum. We expect new record highs.
The 10 Year cycle has come to an end, and based on previous knowledge, considering all these factors we are expecting a financial crisis. The moment when fear will occur in the market we will see people making billions and people going broke. It is what it is.
Our trading plan is to short the Index and scale in once we get confirmation. The downside target is 6000. However we might see even lower lows.
I don't understand why people still make the same error again and again by comparing this crisis to the previous one.
The fed has announced "Unlimited" liquidity plans which means shorting scenarios are far from reality this time.
Yes people will get sick and die, yes people will lose their jobs and banks + companies will announce horrible 1st quarter results but LIQUIDITY will be there!!!!
Stop correlating the real world and the real economy with the markets.
Yes it's a bubble and it is bad but this is how the system works now, we already crossed the point of no return 10 years ago.
There is no other solution than putting more and more liquidity every time to avoid sudden crashes like we just had.
Don't get me wrong or anything, please just don't go ALL IN if you still believe in a short scenario.
Peace.
TradingExpertGroup
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@DYousef, Were not promoting our vision in this case, we just sharing it. Of course there is many thing that people/ traders do not know of the real facts in this situation... But according to a simple logic, US can pump even 10 trln of dollars but if still there is on demand you cant sell it. Every day minus is growing and Trump wont buy our debts.
PS Thank you for your idea.
DYousef
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@TradingExpertGroup, "but if still there is on demand you cant sell it" This is exactly why they are putting unlimited liquidity in the markets! More Liquidity -> More demand -> Higher prices.
The fed has announced "Unlimited" liquidity plans which means shorting scenarios are far from reality this time.
Yes people will get sick and die, yes people will lose their jobs and banks + companies will announce horrible 1st quarter results but LIQUIDITY will be there!!!!
Stop correlating the real world and the real economy with the markets.
Yes it's a bubble and it is bad but this is how the system works now, we already crossed the point of no return 10 years ago.
There is no other solution than putting more and more liquidity every time to avoid sudden crashes like we just had.
Don't get me wrong or anything, please just don't go ALL IN if you still believe in a short scenario.
Peace.