Looking at other dates, we see that in 2018, there was an 14% drop at the start, where in the last couple of months in 2018, where a significant larger drop of 24,5% before a reversal up.
first couple of months of 2020 gave the famous 30% drop from ATH. From aug to sep, there was a drawdown of 14.5%.
The start of 2021 gave an almost 12% fall in prices.
Comparing the last couple of years drawdown, we can consider the 2020 30% drop. The first phase have an initial drop of about 16%, before moving lower. This can be compared to the current drawdown of about 18%, where an up move of about 10% occured before an 27 % drop.
The current market situation is that we have high inflation and likely will stay high because of the geopolitical uncertainty, pending rate hikes, overvalued markets, which leeads us to a bearish market sentiment. I am expecting a sharp reversal to about 15000 before we move lower to 12.000 ish level. another possibility is that we move sharply lower without the revarsal to the 15000 ish level.
Look at the Put/call ratio. (the yellow one) there are indication of rising put level. An put/call ratio above 0.7 suggests an bearish sentiment
first couple of months of 2020 gave the famous 30% drop from ATH. From aug to sep, there was a drawdown of 14.5%.
The start of 2021 gave an almost 12% fall in prices.
Comparing the last couple of years drawdown, we can consider the 2020 30% drop. The first phase have an initial drop of about 16%, before moving lower. This can be compared to the current drawdown of about 18%, where an up move of about 10% occured before an 27 % drop.
The current market situation is that we have high inflation and likely will stay high because of the geopolitical uncertainty, pending rate hikes, overvalued markets, which leeads us to a bearish market sentiment. I am expecting a sharp reversal to about 15000 before we move lower to 12.000 ish level. another possibility is that we move sharply lower without the revarsal to the 15000 ish level.
Look at the Put/call ratio. (the yellow one) there are indication of rising put level. An put/call ratio above 0.7 suggests an bearish sentiment
Comment:
Putin just made the basis for a sharp drop. i still belive that the sanctions later today would fuel a small reversal. The sanctions introduced until now, have very small impact on russia, where there is a tradeoff for nato to consider more strict sanctions. the tradeoff is that harder sanctions would also hit back on the nato countries. e.g. higher gas prices and commoditues among other things.