US100 Bull Trap 6/25, 40hr crossed 400hr MA; Crash incoming
I was right about the last theory, so I'm expanding on it. The MAs don't lie. Today had all the markings of a Bull Trap; and may continue tomorrow, though I'm hoping for the sell off tonight. By Monday 7/6 we should be near a bottom support. The 12yr Bull trend broke above it's channel's resistance; which has always resulted in a major sell-off. The new long-term Bear trend emerging has a 3:1 steeper angle in a wedge; and the short term bear corrections are bout 12% steeper than the bull corrections. The new long term bear trend that could emerge next year will be a decline twice as steep as the 12yr Bull trend.
Perma-bulls are gonna lose a lot of money soon believing in the Fed and the Trump lies. Trump and Barr are beginning to file anti-trust lawsuits against most of the FAANG and social media companies. This will surely hurt US Tech. Last, but not least, the U.S. Semi market is in a very vulnerable position with China the trade deal off, and war drums beating around the world. The U.S. doesn't even have the materials and foundries to produce it's current products. All the rare earth materials come from China; and TSMC is the world's leading foundry by leaps and bounds. WHEN China Annexes Taiwan, the US Semi market will take decades to catch up, if ever.
All China needs to be self-sufficient in the semi market is to build newer foundries and infrastructure(10-12yrs); OR the could just steal Taiwan's foundries in a short war. Trump will just denounce and beg for them to honor the deal; like he did with HK and Muslim Camps. For the U.S. to become independent we have to discover new rare earth deposits and mine them.(decades) Then we have to build several semi foundries.(decades)
To give you an idea of how far behind we are: TSMC agreed to build a 7nm foundry for $40BN in AZ that will take 10-12yrs to complete. They currently have 5nm foundries of their own and are nearing 3nm capabilities. By the time we theoretically get foundries built for dated current tech, they may have 1nm or smaller capabilities. This is not something that happens in a few years. It takes tens of Billions of dollars and decades. We fell behind because we used Asia for cheap labor, at the expense of the American middle class. Now those cheap laborers took over the farm and are about to put us in the dog house. That's what we get for electing greedy, racist, impulsive idiots and those who supported these trends will pay the most for it.
Perma-bulls are gonna lose a lot of money soon believing in the Fed and the Trump lies. Trump and Barr are beginning to file anti-trust lawsuits against most of the FAANG and social media companies. This will surely hurt US Tech. Last, but not least, the U.S. Semi market is in a very vulnerable position with China the trade deal off, and war drums beating around the world. The U.S. doesn't even have the materials and foundries to produce it's current products. All the rare earth materials come from China; and TSMC is the world's leading foundry by leaps and bounds. WHEN China Annexes Taiwan, the US Semi market will take decades to catch up, if ever.
All China needs to be self-sufficient in the semi market is to build newer foundries and infrastructure(10-12yrs); OR the could just steal Taiwan's foundries in a short war. Trump will just denounce and beg for them to honor the deal; like he did with HK and Muslim Camps. For the U.S. to become independent we have to discover new rare earth deposits and mine them.(decades) Then we have to build several semi foundries.(decades)
To give you an idea of how far behind we are: TSMC agreed to build a 7nm foundry for $40BN in AZ that will take 10-12yrs to complete. They currently have 5nm foundries of their own and are nearing 3nm capabilities. By the time we theoretically get foundries built for dated current tech, they may have 1nm or smaller capabilities. This is not something that happens in a few years. It takes tens of Billions of dollars and decades. We fell behind because we used Asia for cheap labor, at the expense of the American middle class. Now those cheap laborers took over the farm and are about to put us in the dog house. That's what we get for electing greedy, racist, impulsive idiots and those who supported these trends will pay the most for it.
Comment:
Correction: It was a 5nm foundry proposed in AZ for $12B and would typically take 3-4 years to complete. Sorry for not confirming my numbers before posting. However, with the current world climate I'm inclined to believe it will take much longer than it did in the past and it always costs more than the number they sell you on.
Comment:
There's also lots of infrastructure and mines that need to be built before any foundry gets built, because without China we have no control of the materials.
Comment:
Should also note I'm pretty new to swing trading, charting and following trends; but I'm well in green territory YTD and I did it by shorting the 2nd &3rd legs of the big drop in March. I was mostly cash already so first drop only lost 8%.
If this long term bear trend angle means what I think it means, then we're watching the largest transfer of wealth in the history of the world, and it's not from the rich to the poor. It's from the upper middle class to the super rich. The big boys lost all their stock value in March and are now selling the worthless stocks at exorbitant prices to recoup their losses. They're prodding and harvesting the 401ks of the MAGA retirement community that only believe Trump and Fox. The Baby boomers are by far the largest and wealthiest generation ever; and they're too proud, and ignorant for their own good.
If this long term bear trend angle means what I think it means, then we're watching the largest transfer of wealth in the history of the world, and it's not from the rich to the poor. It's from the upper middle class to the super rich. The big boys lost all their stock value in March and are now selling the worthless stocks at exorbitant prices to recoup their losses. They're prodding and harvesting the 401ks of the MAGA retirement community that only believe Trump and Fox. The Baby boomers are by far the largest and wealthiest generation ever; and they're too proud, and ignorant for their own good.