@crypto_boom, USD10Y is still progressing in the teal trendline territory and didn't escape yet. To consider it going upward trend, it should break through 4.36% local high first. Otherwise the trend would be downward because it broke down the rising wedge.
crypto_boom
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@HowardMarks46, broke 4.36%. Think this is a back test or are yields heading higher?
HowardMarks46
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@crypto_boom, I think US10Y can be viewed in two ways, technically and fundamentally.
Technically it broke through 4.36% local high recently. As I wrote previously this is a condition to start considering a rising scenario and doesn't mean that it definitely goes up. What to do now is waiting and watching if the breakout is just a fakeout or not.
If it retests the local high and rises above 4.43%, the probability to go up increases and I should watch if it enters the rising wedge. Else if it was just a fakeout and the yield falls again, the original scenario remains.
I think the ultimate criterion for direction is the teal trendline. As seen on Feb 1st, US10Y broke down and retested 3.96%, so it would have looked like falling further. But it rose again and re-entered the teal trendline territory. So before it completely escapes from the territory, it's hard to say any direction.
Fundamentally, the youtube video below contains some explanations.
In summary, US10Y and Oil/Gold ratio have similar trend. If global economy is bullish, Oil/Gold ratio rises.
But the current economy wants more gold which is safe asset. Russia and China have been stockpiling a lot of gold since a few years ago. And the national debt of the US keeps rising so the economy is not so bullish.
If you look at UKOIL/GOLD chart on TradingView, you can see a triangle convergence since 2022. It is likely to show the direction before June. Of course there can be a fakeout on this chart too.