Commentary from "The Recession Playbook" from Morgan Stanley:
"With growth in real personal consumption expenditures ( PCE ) below 2.5% sending a reasonably consistent recession signal. Each of the last 5 recessions has seen real PCE actually shrink on a y/y basis by the end of the recession, but leading into the recessions a large decline in the growth of PCE is also very consistent. Given the heavy reliance of the US economy on the domestic consumer, slowing consumer spend is perhaps an obvious precondition for any recession."
The chart data is from the Economic Data site ( ).
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Last month the Fed hinted to a"one and done" 25-basis-point cut in July. But the market implied probability of a 50 bps rate cut by Fed at the September 18 meeting has risen to 30 per cent.
The 30 year yield is signaling economic fears and US yields remain far above the global average.