2s & 10s Yield Spread (Special Case)

  • The chart tends to move in a type of a sine curve.
  • Upside and downside moves usually closely follow the growth cycle of the US economy.
  • Curve steepening signals about incoming recession.
  • But this time spread is moving higher for a different reason considering recent overall economic outlook.
  • In Q2 we've just came out of the recession.
  • Indices will correct, but won't crash in the next 2-3 years.
  • However, US10Y-US02Y entering TP level might actually trigger relatively bigger correction in indices.
Spread is compared directly to SPX to monitor inverse correlation.
Bitcoin is added to the whole thing just for a research purposes.


elegantly done bro!
+1 Reply
Beautiful analysis as usual. And , I agree no crashes if we correct we will probably rhythm either with the ABCDE of 70s or 2009's bull

move something within 30 % should be more than enough the kick this new cycle into motion for years of bullishness with

correction along the way. I am enjoying your analysis buddy, need more off it on SPX, the more the better :-) LOL.

wish you all the best this life has to offer.
+1 Reply
nice. so when the spx and notes cross over, we have already dumped once and are about to go doooown haha :)
nice chart but the bitcoin adds zero
fract cutlossking
@cutlossking, your statement will be under pressure during next 8 years. Eventually I admit that I may have to agree with you.
@fract, i was not referring to the underlying BTC more the fact that due to its infancy and extreme parabola I am not seeing how it reveals much of anything. thats all.
but it is still a good chart