Simon_says

Prediction of next financial downturn

According to FedWatch Tool https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interes... there will be 2 or even 3 interest rate CUTS in late 2020.

It means the difference between US10-US02Y spread will move up - arrow on the plot. We can already see that values jumped to 1.63 and that will continue!

The vertical dashed lines indicate the official beginning of recessions from https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2...

While the horizontal line (red/green) indicate 250 days moving average; Every time US10Y-US02Y crossed the 250d average the recession occurred but was not announced until a few months later!

It means interest cuts will follow during Presidential elections in the US and recession will not be announced until 2021!!!
Comment: Probability of US Recession Predicted by Treasury Spread, Official NY FED website

https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/...

The Most Scary and Important Chart You NEED to See Right Now:

https://youtu.be/Bs1_8r4oS_E
Comment: Bond market anticipating future Fed rate cuts

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7gYwGq47...
Comment: The Entire Treasury Yield Curve Is 'Inverted'

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/entire...
Comment: Here we go again: Bank of America calls for 50 basis point cut at Fed's March meeting

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ud1ZaiFi...
Comment: Two weeks before Official FOMC meeting, Fed cuts rates by half a percentage point to combat Coronavirus slowdown - that escalated very quickly!

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/03/fed-cuts...
Comment: Market Massacre: Oil Crashes 30%, Dow Down 1,000, VIX Explodes As Spoos Crater

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/market...
Comment: Stocks Suffer Worst Week Since Lehman Despite Biggest Fed Bailout Ever

https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/stocks...
Comment: Very nice video, please watch: Will the Coronavirus TRIGGER a Global Recession?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uc38v9yh...

These Updating Charts Show How Many People Are Losing Their Jobs Amid The Coronavirus Pandemic

https://www.buzzfeednews.com/article/lam...

Comments

Its amazing how fast this is happening, the Fed cant keep up! We will have at least a 50% correction, but an 80-90% is needed, the wealth transfer is beginning.
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Simon_says AMERICANHANDYMAN
@AMERICANHANDYMAN, Thank you for the comment, the correction will happen just stay patient

+1 Reply
@Simon_says, OUCH!
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@Simon_says, the coming Fed injected rally will guarantee a certain presidential nomination, but ultimately cause an overdose death to the American dollar.
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Simon_says AMERICANHANDYMAN
@AMERICANHANDYMAN, That is exactly what the US of A needs! That's why D.Trump rushed J.Powell to cut rates, please watch this video:

President Donald Trump On Currency Devaluations: We'll Level Playing Field

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Cw6o9L9cyhY
+1 Reply
@Simon_says, it's a shame that every country is in a race to the bottom. What do you think will rise from the ashes of this inevitable destruction of the dollar?
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Simon_says AMERICANHANDYMAN
@AMERICANHANDYMAN, I'm not 100% sure but we may have novel type of electronic cryptocurrencies backed by precious metals. At least I would propose something like that - a hybrid system of traditional and future systems.
+1 Reply
Excellent Simon
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Do you not reckon it would go lower to -0.4? I feel that we aren't near crisis point yet, maybe we're 5 years away like 1995-2000. Maybe short near the end of Trump's 2nd term.
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@Mt.BFX, Initially, my thoughts were exactly the same as your comment BUT go to FED Tool Watch and change date for July or September then you will realize that Yield curve is not going down anymore https://www.cmegroup.com/trading/interest-rates/countdown-to-fomc.html In case of 1995-2000, the interest rates went up-down and finally up https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/TVC-US02Y/ that allowed to balance the recession but now we are going ONLY DOWN as you see on the FED Tool Watch. Of course I may be completely wrong, let's wait and find out.
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