DarkPoolTrading

Credit - US10Y to Decline

Short
TVC:US10Y   US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield
Idea for US10Y:
- US10Y will decline - institutional fear > buy safe bonds.
- Positive correlation in yields/equities right now (extreme periods)
- Markets are topped, this will cause a decline in equities.
- UST signaling deflationary shock.
Yes, you will have inflation win out in the end, but you can have deflationary shock to get Fed to enact more extreme monetary policies.
You can have negative growth during price inflation .

Reminder that major crashes are preceded by capitulation in yields:

GLHF
- DPT
Trade active: Interest rates wont be hiked, in fact they will be negative.

It is not interest rates that is the catalyst, but the tapering of asset purchases.

Comments

Interest challenge to your thesis today. Will be watching to see what happens.
+1 Reply
Youre a savage 💥💥💥💥
+1 Reply
crashes are characterized by yield increases up to 3-4% or more.
Reply
i think i agree, TLT and tech probably best place to be
Reply