Idea for US10Y: - US10Y will decline - institutional fear > buy safe bonds. - Positive correlation in yields/equities right now (extreme periods) - Markets are topped, this will cause a decline in equities. - UST signaling deflationary shock. Yes, you will have inflation win out in the end, but you can have deflationary shock to get Fed to enact more extreme monetary policies. You can have negative growth during price inflation.
Reminder that major crashes are preceded by capitulation in yields:
GLHF - DPT
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Interest rates wont be hiked, in fact they will be negative.
It is not interest rates that is the catalyst, but the tapering of asset purchases.