The US10Y has confirmed the shift from bullish to long-term bearish as last week it broke below the Higher Lows Zone that has been holding since the August 07, 2020 bottom. The bounce however on the 1D MA200 (orange trend-line on the left chart) is something to keep an eye on, but for the moment that is viewed as a Lower Lows rebound within a Channel Down (right chart).
The last Lower Highs were made at or close to the 4H MA200 (orange trend-line on the right chart). Since the 4H RSI has just entered its Resistance Zone, it may be a good time to start selling the US10Y. The target is 1.1600, above the 0.5 Fibonacci retracement level (as seen on the left chart).
Most recent US10Y idea:
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Nice one, definitely looking forward to see the play out
peterbhc
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Thanks for you insight. I see a bull flag PT of 2.6
Hedge_Of_The_World
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Always great work, my friend. But, I see it a little differently, particularly given the macro environment and this morning's non-transitory 5.4% CPI print. The 200DMA has acted as solid support, and we really don't have any resistance under the 50DMA around 1.527%. Considering the ugly 30Y auction today with $24 Billion being sold at 2% (almost 3 basis points higher than issued), which sent the 10Y yield roaring higher, we're also looking at a daily RSI of 46 on the 10Y. We have ample room to the upside with solid support just below. I think the best swing here is to short long dated treasuries and go long dollar toward 95, and Vix toward 30: