The U.S. Government Bonds 10 YR Yield (US10Y) has gone a long way since our last 1D analysis 3 months ago (October 21 2023, see chart below), hitting all 3 Targets in the process:
This time however it is in a completely different situation as it may be rebounding since the Higher Low at the bottom of the long-term Channel Up on December 28, but is being rejected on the 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) since Friday. As a result by tomorrow it will complete a 1D Death Cross, which is technically a bearish pattern.
Last time it was formed however (May 04 2023), it did so exactly on a bottom and a very strong 6-month rally started. Also technically, every time it finished such a downtrend (blue ellipse), strong rallies above the 1D MA50 followed.
As a result our trading plan will be based on simple break-outs. As long as the price closes a 1D candle above the 1D MA50, and remains within the Channel Up, we will be bullish targeting the 5.000% Resistance. If however it breaks below Support 1, the loss will be minimal and we will reverse to a sell, targeting Support 2 at 3.300%.
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Look at the long term history of this and even the one from last year, the 50 day crosses over the 200 day again in May of 2023 (using SMA)
When there is a death cross, yields fall. But we just had a golden cross right now.
50 day is at 4.107
200 day is at 4.1