Skipper86

$SPY vs. US 10-Year Treasury Yield

Long
TVC:US10Y   US Government Bonds 10 YR Yield
With the 10-Year yield exceeding 1%, it's worth looking into the relationship between it and the S&P 500 in order to anticipate how the stock market may be affected. Treasuries are in a long-term downtrend and are near the middle of the trend channel. There was a MACD signal crossover (not shown here) at a level which, looking back at MACD history, suggests there's technical strength behind the recent upward move. The S&P 500 (SPX) is shown for reference. Below that is the cc (correlation coefficient) which shows the correlation between SPX and the 10-year yield. There is a 200-period moving average which shows that the two are primarily positively correlated, meaning, they move in the same direction at the same time as opposed to opposite each other. There are exceptions as shown by the negative readings. Right now the cc shows a strong correlation but it's at a pretty high reading where it doesn't tend to linger for long, so the two may be on track to have a weaker positive correlation or to become negatively correlated in the near future. This is all very inconclusive but these are indicators worth watching. I'm bullish on the S&P until around 3950 based on my other analyses which were also published here so this analysis fits in with that trajectory and subsequent uncertainty.

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