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majicktrader
Jun 14, 2021 1:58 AM

US10 Year Yields not correlated to Bitcoin 

United States 10 Year Government Bonds YieldTVC

Description

I keep reading on Trading View that US Ten Year yields are going to fall to 1.2% and this means Bitcoin is going to go back up.

Take a look at the chart - there is little correlation between US 10 year yield rates and the price of Bitcoin. A 50% correlation at best and even if this was higher, correlation doesn't imply causation. Just because Bitcoin has softened while there has been a softening in yields this year - that doesn't make them either correlated or causated.

Bitcoin is going to do what Bitcoin is going to do.

10 Year Yields are going to rise based on i) implied taper talk/rate rising by the Fed because of ii) Implied US GDP Recovery/Growth iii) Jobs Recovery
Comments
Rocco888
maybe bitcoin together with bonds could be considered an option to reinvest money from stock and if they buy bonds yield goes down
majicktrader
@Rocco888, Hi Rocco - love your enthusiasm mate. The two are so different. One is super safe and the other is super risky. And the investors who buy bonds are banks and hedge funds looking after people's money. Even this morning a hedge fund trader is on TV saying Bitcoin is just too risky for his customers.

The reason the 10 Year Yield is currently going down is that commercial banks are awash with money thanks to Fed injecting at least US120 billion every month into the money supply buying bonds and mortgage securities and they have to put it somewhere. If the banks and hedge funds buy short dated Treasuries they make practically nothing, so they are buying longer-dated Treasuries (10 year and 30 year) which is pushing the price of the yields down.

So this push and pull will continue to happen until the Fed announces tapering and the amount of money in supply begins to decrease.
reuters.com/business/fed-announce-qe-taper-aug-or-sept-rising-inflation-concerns-2021-06-11/

In March and April the Fed bought higher amounts and this is partly why we are seeing a softening of yields at present. This is not necessarily going to continue. The next few months will be exciting as we see the Fed begin to talk about tapering, and this will really start to move yields.

And this will impact Gold
finance.yahoo.com/news/gold-hits-one-month-low-093233022.html
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