GOLD's Prediction for US10Y, Tesla, Bitcoin
BTC and TESLA as Risk Assets (Leading Indicator)
Bitcoin and Tesla represents the extreme risk tolerance investors have. They are "speculative" and "volatile". Tesla and BTC have become a proxy of risk-off investor sentiment. Tesla and BTC represent the "perfect" future. Investors imagine a world with - a decentralized, digital currency revolutionizing finance and money with - a cutting edge AI manufacturer revolutionizing energy and transportation . If Tesla and BTC go to new highs that sends a bullish message to the markets. These assets have gained value along with a rise in personal income via stimulus. Since pre-covid the non-farm payroll total we have lost 3 plus million jobs but at the same time personnel income "rose". It "rose" because of - stimulus, unemployment, low interest rates - and inflation. Remove inflation and stimulus Americans are just as poor as they were precovid. The "excess money" investors thought they had was used to buy Tesla and BTC. Without government intervention less money will flow here. The market has been running on the fuel of government intervention
BTC and TESLA Correlation
Tesla has transacted billions of dollars of btc this year alone during the crypto/meme mania phases. BTC and Tesla have fallen in value these past months due to the heavy winds they face. BTC is opposed by the Yellen and Gary Gensler who are both looking to regulate it (heavily). The Chinese government have already implemented measures to limit it. Tesla is being dropped by institutions and big investors who are claiming profits. Tesla has been setting record sales in China but, that will not last long; they may soon be banned or heavily taxed because, China prefers their own companies to be selling in their land. The long term future of cryptocurrency blockchains is bright but, will experience headwinds in the coming future.
Will a market crash that affects Tesla's stock cause a similar effect in BTC? Is BTC tied to the success of the stock market?
GOLD tells us a lot about the economy
Priors ideas are linked explaining how I use GOLD to predict movements in US10Y. When Gold goes up, interest rates go down. When Gold goes down, interest rates go up. The two charts on the left show this relationship.
Looking at the four charts above. Note how they all have the same structure. Longer degree Bull flag with a shorter degree Bear flag I expect US10Y to fall in the short term. Also, note the two downward facing, red arrows and white base that was formed on all the charts. I expect Tesla, BTC to go to Target1 (noted on chart). If Gold further sells off even more. BTC and TESLA will fall to Target2.
Attached below are related ideas and charts that provide context to the analysis here. Happy trading/investing....
Bitcoin and Tesla represents the extreme risk tolerance investors have. They are "speculative" and "volatile". Tesla and BTC have become a proxy of risk-off investor sentiment. Tesla and BTC represent the "perfect" future. Investors imagine a world with - a decentralized, digital currency revolutionizing finance and money with - a cutting edge AI manufacturer revolutionizing energy and transportation . If Tesla and BTC go to new highs that sends a bullish message to the markets. These assets have gained value along with a rise in personal income via stimulus. Since pre-covid the non-farm payroll total we have lost 3 plus million jobs but at the same time personnel income "rose". It "rose" because of - stimulus, unemployment, low interest rates - and inflation. Remove inflation and stimulus Americans are just as poor as they were precovid. The "excess money" investors thought they had was used to buy Tesla and BTC. Without government intervention less money will flow here. The market has been running on the fuel of government intervention
BTC and TESLA Correlation
Tesla has transacted billions of dollars of btc this year alone during the crypto/meme mania phases. BTC and Tesla have fallen in value these past months due to the heavy winds they face. BTC is opposed by the Yellen and Gary Gensler who are both looking to regulate it (heavily). The Chinese government have already implemented measures to limit it. Tesla is being dropped by institutions and big investors who are claiming profits. Tesla has been setting record sales in China but, that will not last long; they may soon be banned or heavily taxed because, China prefers their own companies to be selling in their land. The long term future of cryptocurrency blockchains is bright but, will experience headwinds in the coming future.
Will a market crash that affects Tesla's stock cause a similar effect in BTC? Is BTC tied to the success of the stock market?
GOLD tells us a lot about the economy
Priors ideas are linked explaining how I use GOLD to predict movements in US10Y. When Gold goes up, interest rates go down. When Gold goes down, interest rates go up. The two charts on the left show this relationship.
Looking at the four charts above. Note how they all have the same structure. Longer degree Bull flag with a shorter degree Bear flag I expect US10Y to fall in the short term. Also, note the two downward facing, red arrows and white base that was formed on all the charts. I expect Tesla, BTC to go to Target1 (noted on chart). If Gold further sells off even more. BTC and TESLA will fall to Target2.
Attached below are related ideas and charts that provide context to the analysis here. Happy trading/investing....
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Gold - US10Y relationship:
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China problems are US problems:
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Dollar Strength:
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Idea will be valid as long as Tesla and BTC don't got to new highs.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Mistake I made here was measuring against the ten year treasury when I should've of used a shorter duration which better represents this situation