The united states 10year treasury yield closed Friday at 4.372% in the fx window. The monthly chart shows enormous upswing potential based on the breakout of the monthly supply roof ,on technical i need a pull back as retest candle to the broken supply roof to go long and target 5.2%
the flip side will be a break and close of the current ascending trendline and the target will be 3.3%-3.4% zone .
the structure is showing me a bullish potential and it has a lot to do with the dollar index performance .
what is US10Y???
The 10-year Treasury note is a debt security issued by the U.S. government with a 10-year maturity, paying fixed interest semiannually. US10Y specifically denotes its current yield—the effective annual return if bought today—which fluctuates based on market demand.
This yield serves as a "risk-free" rate benchmark, influencing mortgage rates, corporate bonds, and stock valuations. Rising yields often signal economic growth or inflation expectations, while falling yields may indicate recession fear.
US10Y, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, moves inversely to its price and is heavily influenced by prevailing interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and market expectations.
Fed Policy Impact
When the Fed raises short-term rates (like the federal funds rate) to combat inflation, new Treasuries offer higher coupons, causing existing bond prices to fall and US10Y yields to rise. Rate cuts have the opposite effect: lower yields on new issues boost demand for existing bonds, pushing US10Y down.
if investors anticipate prolonged high rates, US10Y climbs as a risk premium builds in. Inflation plays a role too—higher inflation erodes fixed payments, demanding elevated yields
Treasury notes and bonds are U.S. government debt securities backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Their yields represent the effective annual return investors earn based on current market prices.
(1)Treasury Notes
Treasury notes (T-notes) have maturities from 2 to 10 years and pay semiannual interest at a fixed coupon rate set at auction. Yield is the total return if held to maturity, rising when prices fall due to higher market rates.
(2)Treasury Bonds
Treasury bonds (T-bonds) mature in 20 or 30 years, also paying interest every six months. They typically offer higher yields than notes to compensate for longer-term interest rate and inflation risks.
(3)Yield Mechanics
Yield to maturity accounts for interest payments, price paid, and face value at maturity; it moves inversely to price—higher yields when bond prices drop amid rising rates. Current yield is simply annual interest divided by current price. Longer maturities generally yield more, except in inverted yield curves.
(4)A coupon is the periodic interest payment made by a bond issuer to bondholders, typically expressed as a fixed annual percentage of the bond's face (par) value. It's set at issuance and paid semiannually until maturity.
How It Works
For a $1,000 bond with a 5% coupon rate, the annual coupon payment totals $50—often split into two $25 payments every six months. This differs from yield, which fluctuates with market prices; the coupon rate remains fixed.
Relation to Treasuries
In U.S. Treasury notes and bonds (like the US10Y), coupons provide steady income alongside principal repayment at maturity, making them low-risk investments. Zero-coupon bonds pay no coupons but sell at a discount for equivalent yield.
Coupon rate and yield to maturity (YTM) both relate to bond returns but measure different aspects.
Coupon Rate
This is the fixed annual interest rate stated on the bond, expressed as a percentage of its face (par) value, paid periodically (often semiannually). It never changes over the bond's life; for a $1,000 bond with a 5% coupon, you get $50 yearly regardless of market price.
Yield to Maturity
YTM estimates the total annualized return if held to maturity, factoring in coupon payments, time to maturity, face value repayment, and current market price. It equals the coupon rate only when bought , otherwise, it adjusts for discounts (higher YTM) or premiums (lower YTM).
(5)Zero-coupon bonds are debt securities that pay no periodic interest (coupons) during their term. Investors buy them at a deep discount to face value and receive the full par amount at maturity, with the difference representing compounded interest.
How They Work
Unlike regular coupon bonds, zeros provide a single lump-sum payment at maturity, often 10+ years out; for example, a $10,000 face value bond might cost $3,500 today. The yield comes from price appreciation, making them sensitive to interest rate changes.
(6)Treasury STRIPS (Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal Securities) are common zeros created by stripping coupons from T-notes or bonds. They're ideal for long-term goals like retirement due to predictable payouts and low risk.
HOW YIELD AFFECT STOCK MARKET.
Rising bond yields, like US10Y, often pressure stock markets by increasing competition from "risk-free" fixed-income returns and raising corporate borrowing costs.
Valuation Impact
Higher yields discount future corporate earnings more heavily in models like DCF, lowering present values and stock prices—especially for growth stocks reliant on distant cash flows.
Opportunity Cost
Bonds become more attractive than equities for income, prompting investors to shift funds and sell stocks.
Economic Effects
Elevated yields signal tighter credit, slowing growth, squeezing profit margins, and hurting cyclical sectors.
Exceptions
If yields rise with strong growth (not inflation fears), stocks can rally; rapid yield spikes historically challenge equities
this is just for educational purposes only,pls do your own.
#us10y #us10 #bonds #yield .#bond yield.
the flip side will be a break and close of the current ascending trendline and the target will be 3.3%-3.4% zone .
the structure is showing me a bullish potential and it has a lot to do with the dollar index performance .
what is US10Y???
The 10-year Treasury note is a debt security issued by the U.S. government with a 10-year maturity, paying fixed interest semiannually. US10Y specifically denotes its current yield—the effective annual return if bought today—which fluctuates based on market demand.
This yield serves as a "risk-free" rate benchmark, influencing mortgage rates, corporate bonds, and stock valuations. Rising yields often signal economic growth or inflation expectations, while falling yields may indicate recession fear.
US10Y, the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note, moves inversely to its price and is heavily influenced by prevailing interest rates set by the Federal Reserve and market expectations.
Fed Policy Impact
When the Fed raises short-term rates (like the federal funds rate) to combat inflation, new Treasuries offer higher coupons, causing existing bond prices to fall and US10Y yields to rise. Rate cuts have the opposite effect: lower yields on new issues boost demand for existing bonds, pushing US10Y down.
if investors anticipate prolonged high rates, US10Y climbs as a risk premium builds in. Inflation plays a role too—higher inflation erodes fixed payments, demanding elevated yields
Treasury notes and bonds are U.S. government debt securities backed by the full faith and credit of the U.S. government. Their yields represent the effective annual return investors earn based on current market prices.
(1)Treasury Notes
Treasury notes (T-notes) have maturities from 2 to 10 years and pay semiannual interest at a fixed coupon rate set at auction. Yield is the total return if held to maturity, rising when prices fall due to higher market rates.
(2)Treasury Bonds
Treasury bonds (T-bonds) mature in 20 or 30 years, also paying interest every six months. They typically offer higher yields than notes to compensate for longer-term interest rate and inflation risks.
(3)Yield Mechanics
Yield to maturity accounts for interest payments, price paid, and face value at maturity; it moves inversely to price—higher yields when bond prices drop amid rising rates. Current yield is simply annual interest divided by current price. Longer maturities generally yield more, except in inverted yield curves.
(4)A coupon is the periodic interest payment made by a bond issuer to bondholders, typically expressed as a fixed annual percentage of the bond's face (par) value. It's set at issuance and paid semiannually until maturity.
How It Works
For a $1,000 bond with a 5% coupon rate, the annual coupon payment totals $50—often split into two $25 payments every six months. This differs from yield, which fluctuates with market prices; the coupon rate remains fixed.
Relation to Treasuries
In U.S. Treasury notes and bonds (like the US10Y), coupons provide steady income alongside principal repayment at maturity, making them low-risk investments. Zero-coupon bonds pay no coupons but sell at a discount for equivalent yield.
Coupon rate and yield to maturity (YTM) both relate to bond returns but measure different aspects.
Coupon Rate
This is the fixed annual interest rate stated on the bond, expressed as a percentage of its face (par) value, paid periodically (often semiannually). It never changes over the bond's life; for a $1,000 bond with a 5% coupon, you get $50 yearly regardless of market price.
Yield to Maturity
YTM estimates the total annualized return if held to maturity, factoring in coupon payments, time to maturity, face value repayment, and current market price. It equals the coupon rate only when bought , otherwise, it adjusts for discounts (higher YTM) or premiums (lower YTM).
(5)Zero-coupon bonds are debt securities that pay no periodic interest (coupons) during their term. Investors buy them at a deep discount to face value and receive the full par amount at maturity, with the difference representing compounded interest.
How They Work
Unlike regular coupon bonds, zeros provide a single lump-sum payment at maturity, often 10+ years out; for example, a $10,000 face value bond might cost $3,500 today. The yield comes from price appreciation, making them sensitive to interest rate changes.
(6)Treasury STRIPS (Separate Trading of Registered Interest and Principal Securities) are common zeros created by stripping coupons from T-notes or bonds. They're ideal for long-term goals like retirement due to predictable payouts and low risk.
HOW YIELD AFFECT STOCK MARKET.
Rising bond yields, like US10Y, often pressure stock markets by increasing competition from "risk-free" fixed-income returns and raising corporate borrowing costs.
Valuation Impact
Higher yields discount future corporate earnings more heavily in models like DCF, lowering present values and stock prices—especially for growth stocks reliant on distant cash flows.
Opportunity Cost
Bonds become more attractive than equities for income, prompting investors to shift funds and sell stocks.
Economic Effects
Elevated yields signal tighter credit, slowing growth, squeezing profit margins, and hurting cyclical sectors.
Exceptions
If yields rise with strong growth (not inflation fears), stocks can rally; rapid yield spikes historically challenge equities
this is just for educational purposes only,pls do your own.
#us10y #us10 #bonds #yield .#bond yield.
Trade active
the 10year yield to the moonTrade closed: target reached
100% correct market structure Note
structure never lies.. we long on us10y complete reaction.
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The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView. Read more in the Terms of Use.