It seems like everyone has officially hopped on the bear bandwagon just looking at the Put/Call Ratio at 1.3. But, I don't think shorting support (200W MA & 2020 Top) is a good idea. Could be wrong. This is a layout of how I think the Dow Jones crash could unfold. A leading diagonal for Wave A ending at a high volume node, fibs (~$26,000), then a violent retest of the 200W MA & 2020 top with a bit of overshoot to $30,000-$31,000 for a Wave B, and finally ending the ABC correction down to $21,000. Crypto tends to nosedive twice has hard as stocks. So 25% downside from here for the DOW would equate to 50% downside here for bitcoin which would put bitcoin at $10,000, an area of massive confluence on my previous BTC threads. That being said, a crash structure like this would entail US10Y at least at 5% at the bare minimum imo. At that point, you have to ask yourself as an investor: Would you put your money in U.S. 10 Year Treasury for a GUARANTEED 5% or risk your money in the stock market that historically speaking yields 8.9% over the long term? I assume people will be shitting and crapping their pants, and will be going for the GUARANTEED 5% option meaning more money will be leaving stocks. No it's definitely 100% positively not going into cryptocurrencies with 99% of them being complete scams. Should $21,000 not be the bottom for the DOW, $10,000 won't be the bottom for bitcoin, and folks can kiss their 2024 cryptocurrency bull run away. There will be opportunities to long during this crash for deadcat bounces. The Dot Com Bubble Crash had multiple double digit % rallies.
I think ~26,000 on the DOW is a good entry for a retest of the 200W MA should the crash structure play out like so.
Ever since 2020, we've encountered a "totally uncoincidental" series of unfortunate events. Here's another potential one: What happens if the U.S. Dollar loses its global reserve currency status? Well, then you can't hide your money in the U.S. Dollar. You can't hide your money in treasuries. You can't hide your money in stocks. You can't hide your money in crypto. You can't hide your money in metals. This would work well into the WEF "By 2030, You will own nothing, and be happy" statement. I still haven't figured out the latter part of the statement. I'm not sure how I'm going to be happy. Maybe more vaccine and booster shots will do the trick.