fxswing
Long

US30 / DOW - LONG Opportunity !

FX:US30   Index of top 30 shares on Wall Street
262 11 5
US30             LONG opportunity is here after a 5%+ dip

Trade parameters:
- Buy the 16250 - 16200 zone
- Stops Below 15973 (2014-2-20 low)
- Target1 16700
- Target2 a new high above 17148

Reasons for the trade:
- Market dipping below 200dma channel low (16303), where dip buyers should emerge
- Market retracing 50% of the 2014 range at 16242
- Market touching the Weekly S1 pivot at 16257
- Market touching the weekly 50sma channel high at 16300
- Technicall oversold conditions, that should get at a bounce...

Let's see if this market is really weak and bearish or if this is a "normal" dip opportunity.
fxswing
2 years ago
Other charts that support the US30 long

Trendline that could give support in confluence with the other parameters
snapshot


The 50sma channel high(red) test at 16300 in the Weekly chart
snapshot
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fxswing
2 years ago
Note to myself:
If we do get a bounce from this technical setup dip opportunity, reactions at the 38.2 - 50 and 61.8 retracement levels from the high should be monitored with great care for a potential failure, as a lot of people will expect this bounce to happen.
We all know what happens in the markets when it's too obvious, and everybody believes he's right (betting the farm in the process :wink)...
Repeated failure above 16450 and 16600, should be viewed as strong negative signals to the upside.
In any cases, the trade being stopped below 15973, would have the whole dip monkey buying strategy reviewed and stopped as it could signal a bigger retracement / correction ...
And remember as Always: No Hoping - No Wishing - No Praying - No Opinions - JUST TRADING...
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nmike MOD
2 years ago
oversold at dual trend line support
snapshot
+2 Reply
fxswing nmike
2 years ago
Yep, I agree with your chart.
Let's see if this bounce can retrace at least 50% of last week big red candle (17057-16434) at 16745...
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fxswing
2 years ago
Trade still valid.
Notice how yesterday's we bounced on the broken trendline that acted as support before making a new high today.
So far, so good...

snapshot
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fxswing
2 years ago
Ka-Ching at 16700 Target 1
Trade doing well, will re-evaluate if/when we touch 17000 or 16500.
So far keeping Target 2 with a new high above 17148.
+1 Reply
fxswing
2 years ago
snapshot

Rejection of 16753 on a closing basis (being the monthly pivot and the breakdown point from 2014-06-12 lowest close) , could indicate a potential resumption of the selling.
A close below the 100 dma channel low, at or below 16605 could indicate potential failure and more downside to come.
We'll keep alerted to that possibility if market struggle to clear the 16735 - 16785 zone to the upside.
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fxswing fxswing
2 years ago
snapshot
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nmike MOD
2 years ago
...nice bounce off oversold dual stochastic similar to the bounce up in Feb, now let's see if clears the 34ma or nearby resistance
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fxswing
2 years ago
Sold the rest of the position at 16900 just at the 50dma high.
I'm suspecting we should pullback in the 16750 zone.
Will try to re-enter lower if / when possible.
For now, I'm running to the bank, market will not take that money back from me ;-)
This trade is now closed.

snapshot
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KevinT fxswing
2 years ago
LOL!
Reply
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