After we completed the breakdown as expected, we have a valid swing down for sellers. Today flows look set for a small pullback before continuation of the decline into 26,376 and 25,139 as the main targets below. This is a leg of two halves, we have a zig and a zag. We are trading the pullback in the Zig before we function the continuation of the zag, you get the point!
In this case, before we tackle the impulsive legs we should quickly check the behaviour of the market as we approach the C target. It can be concerning for some sellers that the possibility of continuation with vaccine holy grail - a valid and diagonally opposite force to the case of a major cycle down in the global economy triggered via health crisis.
What all of these undermine is confidence and the powerful urge to take on risk diminishing. Vaccine or not, sadly there is no chance of this making its way around supply chains till 2021/2022 so we have at least 2-3 more quarters to get through in this cycle down. As I keep repeating, most recessions are typically 5 quarters in length and it is not uncommon for 1 or 2 of those quarters to be , this is part of the repositioning battlefield.
Also looking forward to that big tech stocks bubble crash that started on the 1st of september. Apple already lost more than 500billions market cap, and it's clearly not over yet. From the 35 +++ PE ratio, tech stock needs to get back to the healthy 15-20 range before we call this recession over - That's my barometer to buy the dip.
Companies with crazy valuations (TSLA), low/no profits and almost no possibilties of diversification (shopify, zoom), empty shells (NKLA) will also burn to the ground.
No stocks ever had these type of over the top valuation, except maybe at one time: the 2000 tech bubble, the worst in history. Even a rock solid company like Microsoft took more than 15 years to recover from this! Some still haven't, and a lot have gone bankrupt.
So in my opinion, it will need to burst (I don't mean bankruptcy of course!) to restart on an healthy financial base.
For Shopify, I admit the fact that I have put it next to Zoom (nothing special IMHO, more or less "one more video conf company") didn't do it justice x)
I fully agree, personally I just follow a few people on tradingview and don't even read the rest. Most are just doing self promotion and/or trying to make people follow their trades rather than doing smart market analysis, as you said.
It's the same on youtube, if you ever stumbled on youtubers videos in the investing trading community.... It's basically just market manipulation by people with very limited knowledge of finance and economy, with videos like "I bought 10k$ of apple shares today!" (at the top of the bubble).
Hopefully there is still some good content here, it's always interesting to see other people's insight, when it's not biased and well argumented like this.
Will definitely load up on SONO @ around 12$. Look at that recent correlation with nasdaq, its mostly negative now.