ridethepig

ridethepig | Unfinished business in the Dow

Short
CURRENCYCOM:US30   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
πŸ“Œ General remarks

After we completed the breakdown as expected, we have a valid swing down for sellers. Today flows look set for a small pullback before continuation of the decline into 26,376 and 25,139 as the main targets below. This is a leg of two halves, we have a zig and a zag. We are trading the pullback in the Zig before we function the continuation of the zag, you get the point!


In this case, before we tackle the impulsive legs we should quickly check the behaviour of the market as we approach the C target. It can be concerning for some sellers that the possibility of continuation with vaccine holy grail - a valid and diagonally opposite force to the bearish case of a major cycle down in the global economy triggered via health crisis.

What all of these undermine is confidence and the powerful urge to take on risk diminishing. Vaccine or not, sadly there is no chance of this making its way around supply chains till 2021/2022 so we have at least 2-3 more quarters to get through in this cycle down. As I keep repeating, most recessions are typically 5 quarters in length and it is not uncommon for 1 or 2 of those quarters to be bullish , this is part of the repositioning battlefield.

πŸ“Twitter: https://twitter.com/ridepigs

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Comments

Wise words, as usual. Thanks for your analysis!
Also looking forward to that big tech stocks bubble crash that started on the 1st of september. Apple already lost more than 500billions market cap, and it's clearly not over yet. From the 35 +++ PE ratio, tech stock needs to get back to the healthy 15-20 range before we call this recession over - That's my barometer to buy the dip.
Companies with crazy valuations (TSLA), low/no profits and almost no possibilties of diversification (shopify, zoom), empty shells (NKLA) will also burn to the ground.
+7 Reply
targetismoving Kanlilozord234
@Kanlilozord234, all looks good except - I would be careful with shopify. Shopify is not what you may think, its a data company more than anything and i would call it a non-amazon amazon. It has the potential of becoming anything amazon can't by acquiring, say distribution channels and even physical property for "mom and pop" stores which would enable small- and medium-sized commerce firms the second-best after amazon last-mile solution. this company is vastly misunderstood and has a huge potential, played correctly. I think you can safely take shopify out of this group and do some in depth research about where things are going in the market of ecommerce and global retail.
+4 Reply
Kanlilozord234 targetismoving
@targetismoving, While I do agree that Shopify business as room for growth and your vision of the company is very accurate, I still do believe that current valuations are insane. Divide it by 4 or 5 and you will get a correct "non bubble" startup with potential valuation.

No stocks ever had these type of over the top valuation, except maybe at one time: the 2000 tech bubble, the worst in history. Even a rock solid company like Microsoft took more than 15 years to recover from this! Some still haven't, and a lot have gone bankrupt.

So in my opinion, it will need to burst (I don't mean bankruptcy of course!) to restart on an healthy financial base.

For Shopify, I admit the fact that I have put it next to Zoom (nothing special IMHO, more or less "one more video conf company") didn't do it justice x)
+3 Reply
targetismoving Kanlilozord234
@Kanlilozord234, agreed on overzealous valuation aspect. I just looked at it and it doesn't make any sense indeed. But definitely on my radar for long term entry somewhere around 250-400$ hmm... Also, TWTR and SONO are interesting in terms of ripeness for being bought by someone like say, amazon... I have my short list of tech companies that present interest aside from the crowd/under the radar. Cheers though, RideThePig is one of the only sane voices on tradingview. Sometimes i open trading view and immediately it feels like this platform is full of self proclaimed wannabees who preach from their couches and I wish i could clean up 98% of the feed here by implementing an "unfollow" or "hide all from this user" feauture..but charting features on tv are good hahaha
+3 Reply
Kanlilozord234 targetismoving
@targetismoving, yes, SONO in particular looks very promising, if it retraces a bit in the 12'ish before the election, that's definitely a buy for me.
I fully agree, personally I just follow a few people on tradingview and don't even read the rest. Most are just doing self promotion and/or trying to make people follow their trades rather than doing smart market analysis, as you said.

It's the same on youtube, if you ever stumbled on youtubers videos in the investing trading community.... It's basically just market manipulation by people with very limited knowledge of finance and economy, with videos like "I bought 10k$ of apple shares today!" (at the top of the bubble).

Hopefully there is still some good content here, it's always interesting to see other people's insight, when it's not biased and well argumented like this.
+4 Reply
ridethepig Kanlilozord234
Great conversation guys... @Kanlilozord234 @targetismoving
+2 Reply
targetismoving Kanlilozord234
@Kanlilozord234, Hehe, totally, makes you mind-dumb sometime reading people's posts here. Yikes...
Will definitely load up on SONO @ around 12$. Look at that recent correlation with nasdaq, its mostly negative now.
+1 Reply
nice idea
+1 Reply
Excellent as always! Thanks you for sharing your insights!
+1 Reply
Niceeeeeeeee
Reply
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