ridethepig | Unfinished business in the Dow
📌 General remarks
After we completed the breakdown as expected, we have a valid swing down for sellers. Today flows look set for a small pullback before continuation of the decline into 26,376 and 25,139 as the main targets below. This is a leg of two halves, we have a zig and a zag. We are trading the pullback in the Zig before we function the continuation of the zag, you get the point!
In this case, before we tackle the impulsive legs we should quickly check the behaviour of the market as we approach the C target. It can be concerning for some sellers that the possibility of continuation with vaccine holy grail - a valid and diagonally opposite force to the bearish case of a major cycle down in the global economy triggered via health crisis.
What all of these undermine is confidence and the powerful urge to take on risk diminishing. Vaccine or not, sadly there is no chance of this making its way around supply chains till 2021/2022 so we have at least 2-3 more quarters to get through in this cycle down. As I keep repeating, most recessions are typically 5 quarters in length and it is not uncommon for 1 or 2 of those quarters to be bullish, this is part of the repositioning battlefield.
After we completed the breakdown as expected, we have a valid swing down for sellers. Today flows look set for a small pullback before continuation of the decline into 26,376 and 25,139 as the main targets below. This is a leg of two halves, we have a zig and a zag. We are trading the pullback in the Zig before we function the continuation of the zag, you get the point!
In this case, before we tackle the impulsive legs we should quickly check the behaviour of the market as we approach the C target. It can be concerning for some sellers that the possibility of continuation with vaccine holy grail - a valid and diagonally opposite force to the bearish case of a major cycle down in the global economy triggered via health crisis.
What all of these undermine is confidence and the powerful urge to take on risk diminishing. Vaccine or not, sadly there is no chance of this making its way around supply chains till 2021/2022 so we have at least 2-3 more quarters to get through in this cycle down. As I keep repeating, most recessions are typically 5 quarters in length and it is not uncommon for 1 or 2 of those quarters to be bullish, this is part of the repositioning battlefield.
