DJ30 will Fall to 32200 the Upcoming Week - Part 2 (Volume)
In addition to the Fibonnacci assessment in the first chart (linked) which shows that we are on a very important resistance level, this chart deals with volume and momentum. Let's break down what's important:
As one can see in the volume profiles, the circled bars are the ones outside the Value Area (70% of tradings volume of the trend). This shows we are in an unfair price already since a while. In addition, they indicate relatively very low volumes amid the uptrend. This was always the behavior before the end of the trend. The POC, indicated by the red line shows the major support level. For the trend since last July, this is around 32200, which confirms my estimation in part 1 through Fibonnacci and trend lines. The POC of the major trend starting from March 2020 (not shown in the chart) is also around the same number, The very last volume profile on the right (very tiny), isolates the past few weeks showing that even in a small time frame, the bull of the last five weeks, at least, is unsustainable.
RSI, on its part, shows historically how this market is sensitive to overbuying. As soon as we passed 70 mark since end of 2018, the market always rebounded back. We are around the same level now.
FInally, Bollinger Bands are widening, which is an indicator of volatility to come soon.
- Comparative volume profiles of the main trends since 2018.
- The major trend since March 2020 is broken into 2, separated by the market fall in July last year. This is because the fall I am anticipating pertains to the latter trend first, so it's better to analyze it in separation.
- RSI shows the momentum and approach of the tipping point.
As one can see in the volume profiles, the circled bars are the ones outside the Value Area (70% of tradings volume of the trend). This shows we are in an unfair price already since a while. In addition, they indicate relatively very low volumes amid the uptrend. This was always the behavior before the end of the trend. The POC, indicated by the red line shows the major support level. For the trend since last July, this is around 32200, which confirms my estimation in part 1 through Fibonnacci and trend lines. The POC of the major trend starting from March 2020 (not shown in the chart) is also around the same number, The very last volume profile on the right (very tiny), isolates the past few weeks showing that even in a small time frame, the bull of the last five weeks, at least, is unsustainable.
RSI, on its part, shows historically how this market is sensitive to overbuying. As soon as we passed 70 mark since end of 2018, the market always rebounded back. We are around the same level now.
FInally, Bollinger Bands are widening, which is an indicator of volatility to come soon.
