4xForecaster

Could $DJIA Rise To 21850? | $SPX $NDX $DJIA $VIX $GLD $SLV

FX:US30   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
3792 30 17
Friends,

Recently, I put out a few lessons on basic and advanced             technical analysis , using simply trendlines , patterns, and delving into more complex geometries from Elliott Wave , Bill Wolfe and Scott Carney's widely known patterns.

Today, I would like to present a variance of the Wolfe Waves pattern, which some of you know as my main work-horse geometry as a secondary back-up to the predictive/forecasting model I use in my daily analyses.


PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:

First, here are two values which the predictive/forecasting model has put out so for, representing loftier nominal targets (i.e.: low-probability attainment, but high-probability reversal, or top/bottom reversals, in contrast to numerical targets, which represent high-probability attainment, but low probability reversal, or future pivot levels) - These two nominal targets are:

1 - TG-Hi = 18945 - 23 JAN 2015

and

2 - TG-Hix = 21850 - 23 JAN 2015


(The remainder of the analysis will be placed in the text area, below this chart and commentary - Thank you - David Alcindor, Alias: 4xForecaster)
25 AUG 2015 - Tech-Note Update:

@minnie - Yes, this is a great time for an update.

First a quick look back on a prior analysis, where in NOV 2014, the Model called for a more proximal set of bullish targets at about 176xx and 179xx - Since then, these targets have been hit and price ascillating up and down these targets, until a recent decline, which is what these Quant-Target suggested - See chart:





However, a more recent Model screening of the chart led to this thread, with targets that remain unanswered - See current chart:





The lines in the chart are momental lines, part of the occult geometries I have used in the chart to establish probable support (they are weak in nature, but in this case, they may help validate support or further advances).


OVERALL: I would look for a definite decline below the ML that passes through b' to add further credence to this bearish downturn. Until then, there is no certainty, as far as the chart can express.

Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
Here too, a much older forecast called for this Quant-Target:

See analysis from 2013 here:




As the Model got improved, the target were progressively refined along the way - The fact that current targets have not been reached raises a question as to the veracity of a bearish downturn.

Best,


David Alcindor
+1 Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
Sorry - Here is the link to the 2013 analysis:



David
Reply
4xForecaster 4xForecaster
Click on chart to be re-directed to the actual written analysis - Sorry for the confusion.

David
+2 Reply
devlspawn 4xForecaster
Hi David, I'm a bit confused. you've linked to this chart which shows targets being hit, but others above which have a target which has not been hit. Which do you consider to be most predictive?
+1 Reply
Hello @devlspawn - The most recent targets are usually the updated Model-adjusted targets - The variations typically originate from differences between timeframes. If a timeframe takes control (say, M15 falls to H1, or H1 to H4 ... it's never a lower timeframe taking control, but higher frame relinquishing control!), then the targets get adjusted based on this new force of influence.

David
+3 Reply
Hi David,

Any updates on the models for DJIA and SPX? Thanks.
Reply
Any more thoughts on the next higher target for SPX after hitting all-time high today?
+1 Reply
Yes. Hello @Millie.

If price breaks above the 1-4 Line, it could possibly spike to 2240.46. However, this has not been the case so far. If and once that condition is met, then price could possibly attain that level.



However, a few point above prior highs is still a consolidation with the whole. Algos have not allowed negative market closing on Fridays, and this is one of them. But they also have not allowed markets to reach higher-highs of any significant level.

In terms of Fibonacci level, a significant level would have to be a minimum of 1.414-Fib from the height of the consolidation. If price breaks above that level, then it will mean something of a continuation. Any less than that, and it should be translated from bear speak to more consolidation parlance.

David Alcindor
+1 Reply
takefal 4xForecaster
David I am new to trade, can you explain what exactly is the Trigger Line and what its usefulness;
+1 Reply
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