Quick analysis for the weekend. I'll be entering short positions on DOW JONES as stated on the right side of the chart, targets and stops in place. The trades are at the far right just to keep the chart as clean as possible.
Why? There's several things pointing towards similar levels
Bearish white swan starting at as low as 24400 levels
Several extra bearish Gartley derived harmonics, levels at 24800 until 25300.
Volume profile congestion levels from DJI coinciding with the trend lines and possible price timing.
Breakout up distance from lows (if a breakout up from red line is confirmed)
Old trend line retest at highs (orange)
Overbought situation based on average weekly range (red cloud)
Things to bear in mind, or potential risks:
Manage your position sizes according to the stops I provided, this is highly speculative so make sure it fits your trading risk profile.
VIX has peaked to the downside, this SHOULD be monitored before entering any short.
10Y treasuries yields has made a new high on 04/25, seems like that level is a trigger, so keep an eye on bonds too.
I'll be following this idea up as the week progresses.
Good luck!
Trade active
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First one, active.
Cheers
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So far so good. We'll see if there's opportunity to move stops to BE and manage this first trade, on profit and at no risk.
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Moved stops to BE, free risk trade. Let's see if volatility increases a bit. It is taking longer and I think this might turn into a breakout up if time keeps passing by at these levels...
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Stopped out in a small profit... will consider reentering but not for now. I need confirmation, i'll keep monitoring the PA.
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Bearish cypher formed. I reentered short. Tight stop.
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Stop moved to BE again, let's see it this time it breaks down, risk free.
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Stopped out again at small profit. It is apparently a breakout up. So now waiting mode. For the 2nd and 3rd positions it is important to keep an eye on VIX for confirmation first. If vix is going down and DOW gets to those levels slowly and steady, better to keep out.
Trade closed: stop reached
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Stop at BE
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Ok, VIX keeps going down. We had a breakout confirmation. We are currently approaching the next congestion zone coinciding with the harmonic.
Once I get to see price ranging at those levels i'll evaluate shorting at those prices. Remember there should be huge resistance at those levels.
Cheers!
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It is apparent that the climb is steady and VIX is slowing down heavily. So, i'd discard second trade and look for the third in order to be safer. At 25k level the movement should show signs of exhaustion in my opinion but we'll see. Nothing to do for now. Will keep you posted.
Cheers!
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Waiting for 25200/300 zone.
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Third trade active, shorted at 25300
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Third trade looking good. Still i'm not moving stops to BE yet. I will wait for another leg down for confirmation. at this level moving the stop to close to current action will mean a decisive stop out.
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Huge profit on this third one. Moving stop to BE.
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Taking partial profit here, huge profit.
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Remaining order seems to be in good shape.
Trade closed manually
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Well, isn't this just beautiful?
Almost there on target, feel free to close it by now. Gorgeous profit in any case.
Amazing call, love it when I click play, it turns out to be 100% correct, good job buddy!
cacus
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@cryptogast33, much appreciated Sir. Hope you enjoyed the ride.
CryptoSwindle
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@cacus, I did, but closed too soon :-) Thank you, amazing work mate!
UnknownUnicorn2643179
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nice call. I see you take your huge profit what would you think will happen from here? ty
cacus
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@Mr1TommyGun, given the way it respected the ascending channel, i'm now convinced a nice pullback up is probable. In any case, the stop loss is already at BE so, letting this roll in case it finally break below seems to be a nice bet given it is a free trade.