DJIA (DOW30): Last wave up before a larger decline?
Possible wave count and prediction of smaller degree wave 5 (Roman numerals). Hard to tell how large the possible retracement could be and if it will be the end of the larger degree wave 5 (circled wave count).
In any case I will be watching the PA closely when we approach my target level for a potential short trade (blue circle)...
Zoom out for the bigger picture and possible bullish targets higher up...
Two main targets in the short setup, possible third target in anticipation of a potential larger decline, tight SL on all.
In any case I will be watching the PA closely when we approach my target level for a potential short trade (blue circle)...
Zoom out for the bigger picture and possible bullish targets higher up...
Two main targets in the short setup, possible third target in anticipation of a potential larger decline, tight SL on all.
Trade active:
First short today at 22009, next entry 22055 and 22090.
3-phase entry...
3-phase entry...
Comment:
22095 for 3rd entry...
I'm thinking of adding another one if we get to 22185..., not sure, that would be the last one in any case...
I'm thinking of adding another one if we get to 22185..., not sure, that would be the last one in any case...
Comment:
Didn't get the 22185 entry, just missed it today...
Seems like a good reaction though, spike and reversal, this might be it...
Seems like a good reaction though, spike and reversal, this might be it...
Comment:
Comment:
Looking good so far...
Cautious traders could consider trailing SL to above the high...
Cautious traders could consider trailing SL to above the high...
Comment:
Looks better without the trade setups...
Comment:
Short-term traders could consider taking profit at the trendline or MA100 (based on 4H chart) and possibly trail SL to 22080.
Comment:
Pinbar, could continue beyond the 100MA to the 200MA...
Comment:
Daily looks like this:
Comment:
Possible re-entry level coming up (0.618 ret. or ultimately the 0.786 ret.)...:
Comment:
Looking good so far. Now we need to watch the 100MA again and of course the down trendline... If it breaks those 2 and the last low and forms a flag there will be a new short opportunity...
Trailing stops is now a smart thing to do, at least to above the highest high or possibly even above the recent swing high (if you trade on the longterm you can keep everything in place).
Beware though, if we don't break the trendline and the low we might be forming a Gartley pattern in which case we could see it going up to the 0.786 level... before it drops in which case stops just above the recent swing high would be taken out...
Trailing stops is now a smart thing to do, at least to above the highest high or possibly even above the recent swing high (if you trade on the longterm you can keep everything in place).
Beware though, if we don't break the trendline and the low we might be forming a Gartley pattern in which case we could see it going up to the 0.786 level... before it drops in which case stops just above the recent swing high would be taken out...
Comment:
Possible scenario with Gartley, but it's much too early to say, for reference purposes only...
We are now held up at the 50EMA, 100MA is next, then the trendline...
If we don't continue up again that is...
We are now held up at the 50EMA, 100MA is next, then the trendline...
If we don't continue up again that is...
Comment:
Here we go, trendline broken, all stops can now go to BE or above the last swing high (which is at the main entry level of 22090).
I've added a possible Gartley for reference but it's not something I'm consicering in this trade atm). Possible partial profit level for short-term is the MA200, beyond that and on longterm (keep SL wider if you wish) we should wait for the first target of the main idea around 21250...
I've added a possible Gartley for reference but it's not something I'm consicering in this trade atm). Possible partial profit level for short-term is the MA200, beyond that and on longterm (keep SL wider if you wish) we should wait for the first target of the main idea around 21250...
Comment:
Around 21950 is the next level to watch (MA + broken trendline).
Possibilities...:
Possibilities...:
Comment:
Forgot to add the down trendline over the latest swing highs...:
Comment:
Update: if we break the last low (blue rectangular zone) we will have another LL and could be making a 3-drives pattern (depicted in black, second leg was longer than the first though...).
The lower trendline is also an option, depends on the rate of drop. This looks corrective still unless it accelerates into a bearish momentum wave (could be a leading diagonal also...). Possible to move stops on the initial short to 21930 for safety (above the last swing high).
The lower trendline is also an option, depends on the rate of drop. This looks corrective still unless it accelerates into a bearish momentum wave (could be a leading diagonal also...). Possible to move stops on the initial short to 21930 for safety (above the last swing high).
Comment:
Support held and back up now, those who had SL above the last swing high will be out, as it stands now I'm advising to hold on new trades and wait until we know where this is going... Good chance now that it will go back up again...
Comment:
A few wave count options and an up target or possible new short level at the blue circle...:
Comment:
Current situation, if we break to the downside then we'll be in for a decent short again...:
Possible situation and count below, for confirmation traders: watch trendline and possible wedge to see if they break or not...: