BobVanders
Short

Dow 20k fail (Again) - Bearish Divergence

FX:US30   Dow Jones Industrial Average Index
There are signs a top may be forming here. We've had a very extended bull run, and now we're beginning to see very clear divergence between price and RSI on the daily.

Divergence alone is not a setup. Divergence can continue far longer than most people are prepared to hold a drawdown. It's just a reason we might look for more defined setups to trade.

The key here is on Friday we made a new high in price but not RSI , tantalisingly reachin 19,999.6 on the cash index and frustrating those calling for 20k again.

On this timeframe, you'd look for a daily candle to close below friday's (last candle in chart) low (or more cautiously, Thursday's low )

This should set up a correction of the Trump rally. However w must remind ourselves that the long term bull trend is still a strong one, and - in my opinion - we've no good *technical* reason at this time to believe any move down is anything but a retracement.

Also be aware that we've been ranging (red horizontal channel). Breaking that lower bound of the range is further confirmation that a bigger retracement is likely. It's likely any sharp move down will come back to retest the range as resistance, providing more opportunities for entry.

I leave you to pick target levels for yourself based on entry if you see confirmation of these bearish setups, but personally, I think a return to at least 19,000 dow would not be surprising, should price action confirm the divergence.

Comment: so the uptrend looks broken as we reach the end of today, 10th January. BUt the channel is still intact. Plenty of volatility today, seems like some bear stops being run and some bulls being trapped.

We're still looking for a good break lower, but aggressive traders may already be in shorts. Should be a good runner, if we can get lower this week.
Comment: Goodness me they make it hard for us don't they, but today (12th January) has begun well for the bear and we're now beloe those friday lows that have been so stubborn this week. Of course, it's the daily candle close the concerns us most, plenty of time for this to bounce again. Let's see how we do. I'm still short.
Comment: Still short longer term,, Channel bottom held again last week, provided a good level to trade around intraday, so chart still working for longs and shorts on multiple timeframes.
Comment: Long positions here now, closed all short positions on Us indices. Will re-evaluate from top of channel, but intraday (19th) Jan we keep trading the channel, at the bottom means long :)
Comment: Well I think that's what the market was waiting for me to do, go long ;) Now we've broken the underside of the range, should start to set up some bearish moves, but we're not away yet. Will be looking for shorts off the underside of the range.
Comment: So after a slow premarket we opened with a real rip, breezed through the underside of channel. The most obvious of technicals indicate a turn on longer time frames, but at the same time, there's plenty of room for a sting in the tail.

Just trade carefully here, using that channel bottom 19800 as a guide. If it's going to act as support today, you may find it sets of a run to the top of the channel again, and maybe even the mythical 20k (now everyone has finally shut up about it :D )
The bear is so weak in last few days that my feeling is intraday today (19th Jan) it's best to long as we find ourselves at the lower end of the channel. It looks like a short squeeze setting up. Obviously breaking down from channel invalidates that idea, but we've just had a pretty dovish ECB and too many talking heads seem short for Trump inauguration. So long intraday for me, closed all short positions on us indices for now.
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My level of attention just vanished
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I have short 11600 already !
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Oath Oath
@Oath, for Dax and i think dow same 20,000 short
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@Oath, Haha I was goign to say, a short at 11600 dow you probably should have closed a while ago :D

Anyway, let's hope it works out for both of us!
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