My bias for US30 currently is for a bit more upside in order to mitigate the 22hr supply zone or the 19hr, both are apart of a key weekly supply level. From this we will expect a sweep of the asian high as well as a consolidation before entering to show that price is slowing down and buys have now become exhausted.
We will then wait for a wyckoff distribution and a CHOCH on the lower time frame before we execute our sell positions. As price has been very impulsively bullish I am expecting a retracement for sure hence my bias.
My confluences for US30 shorts are as follows:
- Price approaching key weekly supply level that caused a CHOCH to the downside.
- There's magnets below our POI that need to be taken in the form a liquidity sweep.
- There a lot of imbalances below as well as deeper demand levels for price to mitigate.
- Price has been moving very bullish with minimal pull backs so price needs to come down.
- For price to continue in bullish trend it needs to react off a stronger level of demand.
- 22hr supply has also swept liquidity, good sign that the zone will hold.
P.S. I am overall bullish however, as we are approaching a key supply I can see a short term sells playing out in order to fill the imbalances below and mitigate a deeper level of demand. This makes sense because us as traders, we ideally want to buy from a discounted price. As of this week we do have CPI coming on Tuesday, I would personally wait after just to see how price reacts from this major news event then make my move.
Trade safe and hope you guys have a good week ahead!