The US 30 created a market top on the 4th Jan 2022 .
The downtrend has completed 4 legs down , and presently the 4th rally is in progress.
From an Ichimoku perspective
1. Kumo - is bearish and thick , with price well below. The SSB is flat , and this is a reflection of price being contained within the prior swing high and current swing low.
The SSA is ticking up slightly reflecting the current retracement.
2. Kijun Sen - has been flat in the past week , with the recent Friday close within a whisker of reaching this level. The index on a daily perspective has the buyers and sellers matched at the equilibrium point.
3. Tekan Sen - is below the Kijun Sen and as of Friday , is also ticking flat.
4. Chikou Span - is pointing up and is above price reflecting the upward retracement of the prior week, and hinting for a further rise in the index.
So what is a possible scenario for the coming week ?
Consideration of 3 factors - Price Observation , Wave Structure and Time Cycle.
Wave Analysis
It is likely the retracement will complete a V wave , and the following waves could be I, V or N.
Price Observation
Retracement
- The index may have further to rise , and move beyond the Fibonacci .50 level Retracement. The likely zone of resistance could be formed by
a. Resistance Zone - around 32550 has been area that has been tested on 14 occasions with this downtrend. On 7 days it has acted as effective support , On 3 days it has provided effective resistance. On 4 occasions the S/R level has been broken. The market respects this level.
b. Fibonacci - a deep retracement may take place to the .786 level.
c. Present Kumo - will likely offer resistance , as it is thick .
Expansion
If a V wave develops then Price Observation would suggest a V wave Expansion . D = C - (A-B)
D = 32450 - ( 34465 - 29651) .
= 27636
This is close to the FIbonacci 1.27 expansion of 27679
Time Cycle
We are now 122 trading days from the Index Top. The next Kihon Suchi number in sequence is 129. So in 7 days or so , the market may see a turn. The past retracements have the index reaching a swing high and stall for 5-7 days before recommencing the downtrend.
A possible scenario then for next week
1. Movement to 32500 by midweek.
2. Consolidation till the following week with price caught in Kumo
3. 5th Leg of Downtrend recommence thereafter.
I would certainly likely to hear from the TV community on their thoughts.
Thankyou for looking at this idea :}
The downtrend has completed 4 legs down , and presently the 4th rally is in progress.
From an Ichimoku perspective
1. Kumo - is bearish and thick , with price well below. The SSB is flat , and this is a reflection of price being contained within the prior swing high and current swing low.
The SSA is ticking up slightly reflecting the current retracement.
2. Kijun Sen - has been flat in the past week , with the recent Friday close within a whisker of reaching this level. The index on a daily perspective has the buyers and sellers matched at the equilibrium point.
3. Tekan Sen - is below the Kijun Sen and as of Friday , is also ticking flat.
4. Chikou Span - is pointing up and is above price reflecting the upward retracement of the prior week, and hinting for a further rise in the index.
So what is a possible scenario for the coming week ?
Consideration of 3 factors - Price Observation , Wave Structure and Time Cycle.
Wave Analysis
It is likely the retracement will complete a V wave , and the following waves could be I, V or N.
Price Observation
Retracement
- The index may have further to rise , and move beyond the Fibonacci .50 level Retracement. The likely zone of resistance could be formed by
a. Resistance Zone - around 32550 has been area that has been tested on 14 occasions with this downtrend. On 7 days it has acted as effective support , On 3 days it has provided effective resistance. On 4 occasions the S/R level has been broken. The market respects this level.
b. Fibonacci - a deep retracement may take place to the .786 level.
c. Present Kumo - will likely offer resistance , as it is thick .
Expansion
If a V wave develops then Price Observation would suggest a V wave Expansion . D = C - (A-B)
D = 32450 - ( 34465 - 29651) .
= 27636
This is close to the FIbonacci 1.27 expansion of 27679
Time Cycle
We are now 122 trading days from the Index Top. The next Kihon Suchi number in sequence is 129. So in 7 days or so , the market may see a turn. The past retracements have the index reaching a swing high and stall for 5-7 days before recommencing the downtrend.
A possible scenario then for next week
1. Movement to 32500 by midweek.
2. Consolidation till the following week with price caught in Kumo
3. 5th Leg of Downtrend recommence thereafter.
I would certainly likely to hear from the TV community on their thoughts.
Thankyou for looking at this idea :}