What a day it has been on Wall Street (DJI)! The markets moved north on Mr Trump waxing lyrical that he's off the hook - yet again.
What the Mueller report actually said at p182, was that, " The evidence we obtained about the President's actions and intent presents difficult issues that would need to be resolved if we were making a traditional prosecutorial judgment. At the same time , if we had confidence after a thorough investigation of the facts that the President clearly did not commit obstruction of justice, we would so state. Based on the facts and the applicable legal standards, we are unable to reach that judgment. Accordingly, while this report does not conclude that the President committed a crime, it also does not exonerate him."
In simpler language, the Mueller Inquiry was not tasked with prosecuting the President. It was outside of their powers. Importantly they term their conclusions (which are not definitive) in double negatives. I say that this is an invitation to Congress (the legislature in America) to investigate further. The report did NOT exonerate Mr Trump! That is as clear as daylight! But fake news and fake assertions drives markets! The evidence for that is right there - before your eyes - on the chart.
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Mueller described at least 11 occasions where Trump or his campaign people engaged in potential obstruction of justice.
In parts of the report Mueller suggested that it was for Congress to investigate further and decide on charging Trump for the crime of 'obstruction of justice'.
“The report concluded there was ‘substantial evidence’ that President Trump attempted to prevent an investigation into his campaign and his own conduct. Contrary to the Attorney General’s statement this morning that the White House ‘fully cooperated’ with the investigation, the report makes clear that the President refused to be interviewed by the Special Counsel and refused to provide written answers to follow-up questions; and his associates destroyed evidence relevant to the Russia investigation.
“The Special Counsel determined that he would not make a traditional charging decision in part because of the Department of Justice policy that a sitting President could not be indicted. Rather, the Special Counsel’s office conducted an incredibly thorough investigation in order to preserve the evidence for future investigators. The Special Counsel made clear that he did not exonerate the President. The responsibility now falls to Congress to hold the President accountable for his actions.
“Today and during the past few weeks, Attorney General Barr appears to have shown an unsettling willingness to undermine his own Department in order to protect President Trump. The redacted report directly contradicts several statements he made during his press conference earlier today. For example, the Special Counsel concluded that a ‘thorough FBI investigation would uncover facts about the campaign and the President personally that the President could have understood to be crimes or that would have risen to personal and political concerns.’ Barr excluded this critical finding from his version of events.
“The Attorney General’s decision to withhold the full report from Congress is regrettable, but no longer surprising. If he was willing to release this evidence, which is so clearly damaging to the President, just imagine what remains hidden from our view. Barr has so far refused to work with the Committee to provide us with information which has been customarily provided in the past, and to which we are entitled. These concerns and many others will be addressed when Barr testifies before the Committee on May 2nd. Additionally, I have formally requested that Special Counsel Mueller testify before our Committee by May 23rd."
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Crazily - the Attorney General - Mr Barr - within hours of receiving the 400 page (unredacted) report a few weeks ago, issued a 4 page letter clearing Trump of any wrongdoing. The markets jumped for joy. In addition - more recently - Barr refused to hand over the unredacted report to Congress (the legislature). Congress then pre-emptively prepared a subpoena threatening to direct its disclosure. Only then did Barr hand over the 'redacted report' which is not what Congress required. They wanted the full report. Trump himself said that the full report should be released. So passing strange that Barr would take such an obvious protectionist approach of withholding the report from the public, but worse yet from Congress!
(From the redacted version of the report):
p5 - The Russian contacts consisted of business connections, offers of assistance to the Campaign, invitations for candidate Trump and Putin to meet in person, invitations for Campaign officials and representatives of the Russian government to meet, and policy positions seeking improved U.S.-Russian relations. Section IV of this Report details the contacts between Russia and the Trump Campaign during the campaign and transition periods, the most salient of which are summarized below in chronological order.
p173 In sum, the investigation established multiple links between Trump Campaign officials and individuals tied to the Russian government. Those links included Russian offers of assistance to the Campaign. In some instances , the Campaign was receptive to the offer , while in other instances the Campaign officials shied away. Ultimately , the investigation did not establish that the Campaign coordinated or conspired with the Russian government in its election-interference activities.
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Mr Trump is out slagging off the very Mueller Report that supposedly cleared him of all wrong doing! Wow! See comments in response to his post on Twitter: twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/1119207303700471809 Oh how very strange!
Hold everything! Most people have not seen the Volume 1 of Mueller's report! The mainstream media have largely focused on Volume 2. Actually Volume 1 gives full depth into 'No collusion, no corruption'!! Get both reports here (both already in the public domain) bit.ly/mueller-reports By Monday expect most of this stuff to have been digested by investors. Seriously - you're gonna go long on the DJI now? Give me a reason - please.
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At 13:23PM 2019-04-21, Weekend Wall Street (DJI) has not moved a single pip in the last 9 hours! Never seen such a frozen gap before in the last 4 years. What that means, if anything, is to be discovered.
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I found this YouTube vid to be accurate and informative on the issues youtu.be/dEt61RPDQKc
Thanks for this excellent analysis. I myself am a technical analyst, I often don't see it so deeply behind the news. That's why it's always good to read, comment on you because you are very careful about it. Even one of the best news analyzes you do on Tradingview.
Captain_Walker
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@meszaros, News moves markets. Technical analysis shows us the power of those moves in trends. Traders form themselves into various camps i.e. technical analyst, fundamental analyst, swing trader, trend trader, earnings-release trader, and so on. They all see parts of the same big picture. I've cycled through all of those types in my own development.
My opinion is that there is no one road to the 'promised land'. There is also no law or imperative that a trader needs to be in one camp, or that switching camps is a recipe for failure. As I said on one of my blogs, the markets present different scenarios - and my strategy is to use whatever 'weapon' or methodology that is more likely to work in a given situation. So for example if I see a good harmonic set up, I think it would be silly of me to stick with a trend following strategy. By way of analogy, I have options on several modes of transport if I want to get from London to Vienna. I might in some situations opt to drive over or take transport by via several coaches - where I have loads of time and I want to go cheap. A few weeks ago when in Vienna I needed not to spend 12 hours changing planes to get back to London, so I opted to 'pay through the nose' for a direct flight only taking 2 hours in the air. I certainly wasn't going to opt for changes of coach or trains.
But many traders adopt an identity like 'I'm a train person'. All fine - as everybody is entitled to their own personal choices. For me I will use whatever is affordable in transport or trading to get to where I need to be. I don't think I should limit my skill-set by categorising myself. But most of success in trading is not about any particular methodology - but about how it is used.
On the matter of news, I very much dislike popular news giving tips on what to trade or market sentiment etc. I do however pay much attention to geo-political and macro-economic news, because these things affect emotions of large numbers of traders. So whilst sentiment moves markets, geopolitics and macroeconomics moves sentiment.
Wall Street (and by extension several markets around the world), is in a fragile state - like a house of cards - or like a pumped up balloon. When I was a child I had the experience of blowing up balloons with breath from my mouth. We'd want to make them the biggest we could, so blew them up very tight. Then I learned that on occasions just a touch of the hand (no pinprick required), was enough to cause them to pop. I was never good at building houses of cards. But I have played Jenga en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jenga. It's a game that teaches about instability and balance. At the moment I see the markets in that way - a tower about to collapse due to slight but significant disturbance. Of course, I can't predict what the disturbance may be or when the tower will fall.