In this screencast I say that the recent weekly price action in Wall Street is a correction in a bear market. Price has moved into a critical zone and is struggling to stay afloat. This does not mean that it is bound to collapse. It means that price can probably move south.
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I feel love for Draghi!! LOL! I must say I didn't think I could every feel this way! OMG! 😃 😄
Are you predicting that when you say market has made a decision that it’s still bear territory view? Why would it make ath in bear market?
Captain_Walker
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@smifflar, Am I predicting - is the question. I am not. Further, those who have followed by posts will know that I nauseatingly repeat that I make no predictions ever. When I said that the market has decided, I explained that price has departed from the obvious descending falling wedge. Everybody can see that. The departure is not predictive of anything - it just has (departed) - which is a 'decision' of sorts (because I don't know the people who make up the market). How far will the 'decision' take the market north? How would I know. Unlike many folk on social media trading platforms, I cannot see or predict the future.
Note carefully that I updated the post with a screenshot on what I think is the more recent situation. I pointed to a zone of possible (not predicted) early collapse, and a second zone where the markets could reach (not a prediction).
I don't address questions like why 'this or that' will happen. I work mainly on technicals but will consider geo-political and macro-economic events. I often muse at news events which explain 'why' this or that partial correction has happened. Yes - these things explain minor fluctuations for the most part. The nerves about China trade relations with the US was a major macro-economic shock, which was responsible for the biggest plunge in 35 years.
All is not well in markets around the world. The US stockmarkets are being moth-eaten by numerous economic issues other than trade relations. I think it is the biggest Ponzi scheme in history (for a whole load of reasons). But if you need references on others who have said so, PM me (unable to share here due to house rules).
Some of the biggest issues are:
1. Debt of $22 Trillion (for the US only).
2. Global debt several fold more (global debt affects the health of all markets).
3. Rampant US and global QE - which is becoming even more crazy, as QT was seen as a greater danger of causing a sudden bursting of the bubble. This is a global phenomenon. All markets are linked up globally. The US can't simply fight the whole world, they're part of an 'ecosystem'.
4. Fears about increasing interest rates both in the US and elsewhere - because the system cannot take the shock.
5. Impending collapse of the European Union (not just about Brexit). [Those who don't know need to do much reading/research].
Just to be clear, I'm only itemising a small handful of issues that are being papered-over by popular media (some State-controlled). I'm not making a case for 'why it would be a bear market'. I'm simply pointing out the deep troubles that create deep instability in the foundations of the US and other markets. When one builds a house of cards, minor disturbances in the environment can bring it all crashing down. This is basic common sense.
The current world and US economic climates are pretty similar looking back to 2008. Hence higher probability of repetition. Mistakes made back then have been compounded.