In this screencast I review a number of indices: the ACWI, US30, NASDAQ100, India50, Japan225 and SPUBYUP.
The picture is pretty grim. Some say that the world is heading into a deep recession that's likely to be worse than 2008. Some of course say 'no chance'.
The India50 and the Brazil60 are the two main indices, yet to take a nose dive.
The India50 is showing some signs of weakening.
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The Indians have begun rolling over - overnight. (Just to be clear 'Indians' is not different to 'Americans', 'English' or 'French', in terms of terminology i.e. nothing derogatory intended).
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More trouble ahead as Trump considers firing Powell!! Did I say Trump will fire Powell? I did not!
On the SPX500 chart I consider the thick red line to be a key level. If the exchange rate is broken then the "radar" is in technical terms. In my reading this means that there is a very big space down to the fall. If you turn up from this level, you can see a big rally in the exchange rate. On the other hand, I like and agree with your analysis.
Captain_Walker
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@meszaros, Not sure why there should be a 'key level'. You didn't say why. Do you and the market know something I don't? ;):) There are big problems ahead and actually there may be no repeat of the 2008 broad pattern of rebellions. There could well be a simple slow burn down of the daily trend for quite a long while with the RSI dragging on a bottom. Another strange thing about markets I've notice is that when I most expect a rebound from a crazily low price, I might then see an even deeper dive! This is called PANIC!
So whilst I looked back to 2008 for possible bull rebellion patterns, I also know that 2018-2019, may not follow the broad patterns of 2008. There could be some reasons for that, but it is based on the absolutely, totally more ridiculous situation with global debt that I've pointed out in other posts. Other factors involved computerisation of markets and trading activity which are far more reactive than back in 2008.
There is a golden rule for lots of things, that they higher 'it goes' and the more pumped up it is the harder the fall (aka crash, pop or wha'everrr). We're starring at potential doomsday scenarios, in the crazy global debt situation. Did I say 'potential' - yes I did. Just double checking. I''m taking particular note of the ACWI and SPBUYUP. The former tracks 'the world' the latter the failure of US big muscles to keep the S&P pumped up. As you know me crystal ball is broken, so I'm more wrong than I'm right. If or when the SPBUYUP pops all hell could break loose. Banks would freeze up etc and then would come counter-party risk. I think we're some way off from all that, as yet. But the seemingly impossible sometimes happens.
Also consider what's happening with the new 'gold standard' from the 1970s (aka the US-dollar) - and why the market is pumping on the Yen. Methinks it's the big boys in Forex globally expecting more chaos in US-Dollar which if it happens will turn the world upside down. Of late like nobody of significance except the Saudis care much about the US-Dollar. The markets don't even seem to care anymore. This is a bad sign. Yes - in the last day there was a heavy reach for US-Dollar but this is a sign of panic in the markets. The Yen continues to strengthen too but evidentially more than the US-Dollar.
On the SPX500 chart I consider the thick red line to be a key level. If the exchange rate is broken then the "radar" is in technical terms. In my reading this means that there is a very big space down to the fall. If you turn up from this level, you can see a big rally in the exchange rate. On the other hand, I like and agree with your analysis.