This screencast is speculative - and I invite the full brain power of Tradingview's community to consider the variables which might affect the US Stock Markets around this time. Let's do this together.
The stock market has retreated, probably due to nerves about the Mueller report - among several other things. If the report contains nothing on which Trump is impeachable then, I'm expecting a pump north.
Mueller's hit list so far has been: 1. PAUL MANAFORT 2. RICK GATES 3. MICHAEL COHEN 4. MICHAEL FLYNN 5. GEORGE PAPADOPOULOS 6. ALEX VAN DER ZWAAN 7. RICHARD PINEDO
(Names are in all caps only due to copy and pasting. Names and convictions are all in the public domain, so I'm not defaming anybody.)
Some may think that with so much dirt around it's unlikely that Trump will come out of this clean. Hey, this bull market is about Trump - let's not debate that. If Trump goes down the markets go down like lead balloons. Alternatively, if Trump comes out clean enough, expect bullish moves which may then be limited by other factors.
Separate to Mueller's investigation and report, there are 16 other investigations into Trump. If just one sticks, there could be catastrophic collapse of the American markets - with shock waves globally, hitting Forex as well.
We have other variables to consider: 1. The Fed 'money printing' press going to be turned up. 2. Bleaker than expected economic projections by the Fed and Draghi. 3. Expected weaker US Dollar - creating bullish pressure in the long term. 4. Flattening or inverted yield curves 5. Uncertainty's and delays on deals with China. 6. Potential Brexit shock waves. 7. Germany struggling against recession. 8. 'Housing' market bubbles in several countries including the US, in trouble. 9. US and Global debt totally out of control. 10 etc. .. and much more.
Sorry - I don't know what's gonna happen. I do not give tips on entry positions.
Comment
⋅
Supplemental: 34 people had been indicted in total. So far 27 charges have arisen out of Mueller's investigation. Some of these are against people overseas in Russia. It matters not where these people are. The point is that a lot of dirt is being dug up. Roger Stone is the latest to be indicted in Jan 2019.
What's the point? This thing is serious!
Comment
⋅
Expect high volatility as Mueller's report is likely to hit either today Sunday 24th March or shortly after. Don't get caught in to meat grinder! LOL
Comment
⋅
Important for your personal 'equations' - weigh it up as you wish: Not because Mueller has not recommended any new indictments means that Trump is off the hook in terms of the possibility of impeachment. See here my basic outline drive.google.com/file/d/1_mT5EecJjcByf14Z5BNWCmeZWCwRhaxz/view?usp=drivesdk (I created this from other understanding in the public domain. This does not mean I am promoting impeachment or take any sides in the matter. I am promoting nothing.)
Trump was not called to give live evidence at Mueller's investigation, but that does not mean a whole lot. Of significance is the high security surrounding delivery of the report in printed paper form only (we're told). Trump has been overly confident that the report will find nothing. That's a bit strange in the face of unarguable evidence of 7 people being convicted of various related wrongdoings - and that indictments went out against a bunch of Russians.
Impeachment proceedings usually take a long time, during which all sorts of complications would arise for markets.
Comment
⋅
UPDATE: On a Sunday night at 20:11 UK time, the bulls are about to come out, it would seem. Sunday Wall Street has moved 70 points north in just 25 minutes. This sort of move is significant for 25 minutes on a weekend. I'm not saying that this is going to be sustained because on open of the markets there is the usual bear-bull fight. But maybe there is gonna be a fight; the bulls perhaps believing that Mueller report is irrelevant, whilst the bears believing the opposite. I need popcorn and beer! Oops it a Sunday night. LOL.
Comment
⋅
OMG! I need booze!! Wall Street now up 126 points in 1 hr and 10 mins on a Sunday night before the market opens! Totally ridiculous! 😲😃 😄
Comment
⋅
BREAKING NEWS: A summary of the Mueller report is out in the last hour - which is interpreted by many to mean that Trump is off the hook. Hence the pre-opening bounce north.
Comment
⋅
UPDATE: The markets today 25th March 2019, saw some high volatility on lower time frames. tradingview.com/x/InxtxHt9/This was probably due to some excitement in that people saw Mr Trump as 'off the hook'.
However, this a bear market overall with a major correction.
Thank you for your analysis. Very good. You've summarized everything that could increase commercial uncertainty. I agree with you that the volatility will increase in the coming weeks and months. And in such cases, the trade directions become uncertain.
Captain_Walker
⋅
@meszaros, I think loads of people are drooling for a crash. I'm bearish on the US Markets and others. However, I need to keep my bias in check. I think the markets are so conflicted by so many variables in the background that, we're likely to see all swings and roundabouts on any time frame less than 1D. Even the 1D timeframe is not likely to be easy. I prefer to miss out, than to get fried in the frenzy that is likely in the next few days to weeks.
Alternatively, 'uncertainty' itself is a killer of bull markets or recovery - so that could contribute to this market's collapse. I may make a limited and cautious short but nothing significant - after holding, taking careful aim and then firing.