Very nice bear market rally, but it is still a bear market... therefore the boundaries need to be respected.
What do we see on this picture:
1. Double top 2. Upper trend resistance 3. Maxed out standard deviation move 4. Sloping down rate of change 5. Divergence on the RSI
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We reached +0.5 SD now. Very impressive, but +0.5 was exactly the top for previous rallies. We should start dropping soon
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Very nice rejection off the double top so far. Will wait until after the Powell speech on Wednesday to add to my shorts.
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I am actually shocked at how many people turned bullish. Propaganda machine and greed work very well, I guess. Unwarranted euphoria and delusional buying is exactly when the rug gets pulled, so congratulations those who loaded up on shorts on that double top. The ride down will be a long one.
I am expecting 34,000 level to be re-tested, I will reload on a couple minor shorts there again before we dump for good.
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Perfect, we got the retest. I added to my shorts on that right shoulder.
Because of how high the Dow rallied, the measure move needs to be looked at on the monthly time frame. This corresponds to about 27,000. Though I will most likely close 70% of my shorts around 29,000.
For people who want a full confirmation, wait until 33,400 breaks (the neckline of the current H&S).
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Very nice, we're back under the trendline --> confirming that the move was a double top and overall just a fake out.