"There's a warning sign for the economy with an amazing track record: The last five times it flashed, the U.S. economy went into recession within about a year.
This economic crystal ball takes the views of people and institutions from from all around the world and boils them down into a single, simple signal."
When the yield curve has inverted for a quarter, that means longer term interest rates on average are lower than shorter term interest rates. This predicts that a recession will follow.
- Campbell Harvey, Finance Professor at Duke University