Macro - Recession

Idea for Macro:
- I'm of the opinion that Fed has already made a policy mistake.
- Recession has already begun, as per my September 29 idea and now confirmed by consumer sentiment.
- Likely the nominal yield falls below 1.000 again, and yield curve to invert once more.

GLHF
- DPT

Comment:

Inflation! uh-huh:

Comment:

GDP (QoQ) Atlanta Fed Nowcast revised to +0.2%, BEA number tomorrow morning. Est: 2.7% Prev: 6.7%

GDP shock tomorrow?

Comment:

After RBA unexpectedly refused to buy their own government's bonds, Australia's 2 year bonds experienced a 5-sigma move:

Their 2s30s yield curve:

Australia is known as the EM poster boy of the world for inflation.

Comment:

nominal GDP 2.0% vs. 6.7% prev (miss) and -0.1% GDP sales vs 8.1% previous

US 20s30s inverts:

Comment:

AU02Y with a >10 sigma move:

2s10s

AMZN, AAPL and SBUX down 5% after misses and bleak outlook.

Comment:

Long TIPS down 4.2%, Long bonds up:

Inflation baby!

Comment:

As expected, shipping rates collapsed, UK Natural Gas collapsed, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rates collapsed. Is something "real" if it only exists in your mind but nothing supports this belief other than what the people around you are saying?

Comment:

Speculate that US 10 Yr Nominal yield will be negative next year.

Comment:

US30Y down 1700 bps since the "sell signal" from MOVE.

Comment:

The Baltic Dry Index predicted the 2008 crisis, both 2018 crashes, and the 2020 crash, is an indicator of international trade and is a leading indicator of "inflation". Taken into context with the once again inverted yield curve, I don't think it will be different this time: