Idea for Macro: - I'm of the opinion that Fed has already made a policy mistake. - Recession has already begun, as per my September 29 idea and now confirmed by consumer sentiment. - Likely the nominal yield falls below 1.000 again, and yield curve to invert once more.
GLHF - DPT
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Inflation! uh-huh:
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GDP (QoQ) Atlanta Fed Nowcast revised to +0.2%, BEA number tomorrow morning. Est: 2.7% Prev: 6.7%
GDP shock tomorrow?
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After RBA unexpectedly refused to buy their own government's bonds, Australia's 2 year bonds experienced a 5-sigma move:
Their 2s30s yield curve:
Australia is known as the EM poster boy of the world for inflation.
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nominal GDP 2.0% vs. 6.7% prev (miss) and -0.1% GDP sales vs 8.1% previous
US 20s30s inverts:
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AU02Y with a >10 sigma move:
2s10s
AMZN, AAPL and SBUX down 5% after misses and bleak outlook.
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Long TIPS down 4.2%, Long bonds up:
Inflation baby!
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As expected, shipping rates collapsed, UK Natural Gas collapsed, 5-Year Forward Inflation Expectation Rates collapsed. Is something "real" if it only exists in your mind but nothing supports this belief other than what the people around you are saying?
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Speculate that US 10 Yr Nominal yield will be negative next year.
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US30Y down 1700 bps since the "sell signal" from MOVE.
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The Baltic Dry Index predicted the 2008 crisis, both 2018 crashes, and the 2020 crash, is an indicator of international trade and is a leading indicator of "inflation". Taken into context with the once again inverted yield curve, I don't think it will be different this time: