S&P500 (SPX) hit yesterday its 1D MA50 (blue trend-line) for the first time in exactly 2 months (since April 13) and rebounded immediately. This was of course largely assisted by President Trump's announcement of halts on attacks and an upcoming deal with Iran, but there is also a technical angle behind it.
Since the October 2022 bottom of the last Bear Cycle, the S&P500 tested its 1D MA50 numerous times during this Bull Cycle. Of those 14 occasions that this test took place while the 1D RSI was at 40.80 (which is the level it hit yesterday and rebounded), 13 times the price didn't stop on the 1D MA50 but declined more to test the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at least, with sometimes even dipping further. Only the October 10 2025 event rebounded on the 1D MA50 without dropping any lower.
As a result, from a technical perspective, it is highly likely that the current rebound will be short-lived and by next week we could have a bearish reversal targeting the 1D MA100 potentially around 7080.
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Since the October 2022 bottom of the last Bear Cycle, the S&P500 tested its 1D MA50 numerous times during this Bull Cycle. Of those 14 occasions that this test took place while the 1D RSI was at 40.80 (which is the level it hit yesterday and rebounded), 13 times the price didn't stop on the 1D MA50 but declined more to test the 1D MA100 (green trend-line) at least, with sometimes even dipping further. Only the October 10 2025 event rebounded on the 1D MA50 without dropping any lower.
As a result, from a technical perspective, it is highly likely that the current rebound will be short-lived and by next week we could have a bearish reversal targeting the 1D MA100 potentially around 7080.
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** Please LIKE 👍, FOLLOW ✅, SHARE 🙌 and COMMENT ✍ if you enjoy this idea! Also share your ideas and charts in the comments section below! This is best way to keep it relevant, support us, keep the content here free and allow the idea to reach as many people as possible. **
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