Kumowizard

USDBRL - Snapshot on a friend's request

FX_IDC:USDBRL   U.S. Dollar / Brazilian Real
142 2 2
Weekly:
- Ichimoku setup is long term bullish . We still do not have a Kumo overshade and Chikou will stay in open space for long time. Of course at 3,20 and above Price was a bit overbought, got far above from longer term equilibrium levels, so a correction had to start.
- Heikin Ashi signal is counter bearish , the mkt is in a massive pull back phase. To candles marked with ellipse were the weeks, where mkt gave first signals of a consolidation or possible pull back. Those two candles had both upper and lower wicks, both candle bodies were inside body and haDelta/SMA3 crossed down from an extremely high level.
Since then, during the last two weeks the correction is in progress.
- Correction may continue down to Kijun Sen at 2,85 as first main support.

Daily:
- Ichimoku setup turnied from bullish to neutral, with some more bearish bias now -> Price is in the Kumo, Chikou is below Price but way above past Kumo, Tenkan/Kijun is weak bearish . Ichimoku trend followers had to exit long positions when Price broke back below Kijun Sen - buffer, so ard 3,08 offered level on 8-9/April.
Now Price will either start to range trade within the Kumo, or may even try to attack the bottom of the cloud to retest horizontal supp/res levels ard 2,85-2,90.
Please remember, that even if Price dips below the Kumo, that can not be called a firm bearish reversal on the daily chart . For a valid and sustainable bearish Kumo breakout Price always have to clear previous key horizontal level, in this case 2,85! If it trades below 2,85, from that point we can start to look for sell signals to enter a strategic bearish positions.
- Heikin Ashi signal is bearish .

Strategy: For those who are already in a swing short position, it is still ok to hold the shorts, and trail the protective stops. Those who are long, well they have to ask why they are still long? Those who do not have any positions on this cross it is wise not to do anything right now, as there is no good risk-reward trade setup here in the middle of the cloud, and for new positions chances are almost equal to win or lose.

p.s.:
I am really happy that one friend who is a follower of mine asked me to check this chart. Not because I trade BRL             , but because I have position on Sugar             futures , and as we know, Brazil is one of the biggest producers, so regarding sugar             price action, USDBRL             matters a lot.
You can find a link to my Sugar             post below.

p.s.2: the more I look at the charts of different USD crosses and at DXY             , the stronger feeling I have about the end of the 11 months USD bull mkt. I think from May to Aug we will see a massive USD long unwind generally and a deep correction. From August the bull may resume if mkt starts to focus on chances of FED rate hikes again.
Good to know, 2,85 here we go.
Reply
Thank you Kumowizard. I have been checking upon emerging markets/forex with special emphasis on brazil and russia. It seems both are on a strong pullback and I believe it will offer a good entry point for long positions in the near future. I got stopped yesterday on BRL as I was expecting some upwards at the $3-level that did not occur. I will stay aside and recess it when prices approach the supports you mentioned above.
Cheers!
Reply
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