Currently in a minute 4 correction, the Brazilian real should dance around R$5 and R$4.60 and after that increase to up to R$5.40 during the third quarter of 2020
Trade closed: target reached
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Brazilian real reached R$5.35 on April 9, as predicted. It is now tracing a minor wave 4 that when completed will turn turn to another last move up in minor wave 5 that should elevate the currency to around R$5.45 to R$5.50, before the mid-term trend turns down. See the newer post to get updated.
brazilian president is not advising people to stay in and stuff, companies are laying off entire workforces, small business will not have a nice stimulus package like the US gave. think USDBRL will go further up, 5.50
SkylinePro
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@raphaelmenezescaetano, what the president is worried is about a big economic contraction. Who is directly managing the corona crisis is the Health Ministry which is doing an excellent management job on this role, never seen before in this position. The economic package was released is substantial reaching R$750 Billion. Anyway, the economic contraction will be hard as in any other major country. Our current projection indicates the currency can go up to R$5.42, after finishing wave 4.
raphaelmenezescaetano
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@SkylinePro, Agree on the president's worry but it felt like he could have conveyed the information better. the Health Ministry has advised after this is over he is resigning..
jeanmagnoc
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Do you guys think it is going to keep increasing during this week?
SkylinePro
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@jeanmagnoc, the current price structure indicates the most probable scenario is a last lag for a micro wave 5 that should increase the quotation to around 5.25 until end of this week, then we may see a correction to around 5 before moving up again.
markn
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This will go up MUCH higher and MUCH faster than you think... beware.. wait until the virus blows up and people start to freak out. Stay calm but hedge you reals or they will devalue another 35% EASY
STAY CALM
SkylinePro
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@markn, yes, although this is currently our main scenario, there are other possible scenarios that will depend on how the waves unfold. We will be updating this periodically.
brazilian president is not advising people to stay in and stuff, companies are laying off entire workforces, small business will not have a nice stimulus package like the US gave. think USDBRL will go further up, 5.50