agree 100%. based on fibo i would say we may see the 3.70 level (not far from your 4.00). i am building my longs btwn 3.10 and 3.05 as, according to my view, this is a 4th wave retracement getting ready for the final 5th. brl is following the lead of usd appreciation. what happens is that countries with poor performance (economics/political) like brazil are suffering the most. russia is at the same path.
you could be right. like i said, i am not a forex trader and i have limited knowledge on brazil. here is a snapshot on how I see it. building longs on low range of a 4 usually pays off. question is always how deep this 4 would go. literature suggests somewhere around 0.618, thus it could go further the “blue arrow” you see on the chart below. good luck!
Hey ATG, 2.75, maybe 2.40. I am most definitely not buying anytime soon - I'll take a bite at 2.75 but will keep stops tight, then 2.40 if it gets there. It's also very possible BRL put in a bottom here, but we can't say just yet.