This diagram illustrates the LT map for those in BRL and tracking Brazil for good opportunities into 2021. According to my INR maps, again a very similar cycle count which is decisive for profit taking:
The BRL now has the attacking position at the highs after completing a multi decade 5 wave cycle from 1.50 towards 6.00. But here is the weakness, we are already seeing profit taking as the USD enters into a structural decline, we have yet to mention the advantage Brazil has with particular focus on the agriculture side.
The correct ways to play this in equities also come from companies like ALTA which was one of the first gold mining companies to capture the 2020 flows in Brazil. It is reaching an initial target to that in the expectations, now add BRL appreciation to the mix and you can see how we arrive at the 600% targets:
A very good luck to those looking for opps in Brazil, the currency is not afraid of the flank attack and note anyway that you can capture value on Brazilian exports into countries like USD and MXN. Just note how nearest support at 4.63x is -10% from here and the extension below at 3.9xx is -23% from current levels, both are in play for 2021.
Thanks as usual for keeping the feedback coming 👍or 👎
Hello mate, thanks for the analysis! USDBRL is now on a small uptrend at R$5.216, is it still expected to fall on your opinion?
markn
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Anyone thinking that they will see under 5/1 again in the next 18-24 months is kidding themselves...
Troublesome rumors are whispering out of Brasilia again, a damaged economy and macro trends are all pointing to a new all-time high coming by mid-year.
Once R$5.85-88 gets passed on volume the next stop will be R$6.50 +/- all on volume.
Unfortunately, Brazil always has one more surprise waiting in the wings and continues to disappoint.
Find out how 35% of the poorer people in Brazil are extremely struggling now. the lower middle class and poor population are "parcelando" paying in the future for FOOD at grocery stores. This cannot last more than 6 months until they cannot pay their bills.
Some are told to stay home and used to get R$600 reals per person per month ($111.71 USD) then it went down to R$300 reals per person per month ($55.86 USD) now NOTHING.
The service industry and temp laborers are struggling and even though restaurants are still open and things are moving the sales are not even close to pre covid-19 times.
Meanwhile, "1st-world countries" are printing money, kicking the debt " CAN" down the street to worry about "another time"
I suggest everyone google their countries, countries, M1 / M2 accounts, and balance ledgers. Then compare what whats when you try to spend your way out of debt problems and negative/declining GDP years.
Trouble is coming.. What type and from who nobody knows but shit is about to hit the fan.. and the smelly mess left over will always be felt the most by the poorest countries.