Brent Oil Setup: Pre-Talks Correction Scenario

Feb 5

Brent Crude OIL(USDBRO), over the past two months, has been rising due to escalating tensions in the Middle East and the potential for conflict between Iran and the U.S. If these tensions materialize, global oil supply could be impacted—especially given the significance of the Strait of Hormuz.

In the past 48 hours, however, news emerged that Iran-U.S. negotiations are set for Friday at 10 a.m. local time in Muscat, Oman, rather than Istanbul. If these talks yield positive results, oil prices may fall due to reduced tensions. Conversely, if talks fail, oil could spike again. Until then, we can rely on technicals for short-term opportunities.

Let’s quickly check Brent oil’s 4-hour chart. Brent has been in an ascending channel over the past 60 days and is currently near a resistance zone($71.30-$68.00).

From an Elliott Wave perspective, Brent seems to have completed a 5-wave impulse within the ascending channel. We can now anticipate a corrective wave.

I expect Brent oil to decline before the talks, potentially dropping to around $66.40. If agreement is reached, we could see a break of the lower channel line, with prices heading toward $63.64.

First Target: $66.40

Second Target: $63.64

Stop Loss(SL): $61.00(Worst)

Points may shift as the market evolves

💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.

📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame.

🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.

✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!

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Feb 6

Note

Talks Delayed Slightly – Starting Around 10–11 AM Tehran Time

Negotiations between Iran and the United States are expected to begin shortly in Muscat, Oman.

The outcome of these talks could be important for financial markets, especially oil.

Oil positions should be managed carefully as headlines and updates from the negotiations emerge

Feb 6

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