Oil Is Pressing a Major Resistance — Breakout Next?

May 8

Before we start the technical analysis of oil(USDBRO), we should mention that the main moves in oil over the past two to three months have been driven by developments in the Middle East—especially tensions between Iran, the U.S., and Israel. Right now, the key issue remains the Strait of Hormuz, which is a point of contention between Iran, the U.S., and other Middle Eastern countries. A major portion of oil and its products passes through this strait, which is subject to military tensions. Thus, any news about agreements or heightened conflict can quickly affect oil prices—so managing risk ahead of time is crucial.

Currently, oil is moving near a resistance zone($106-$102).

From a classical technical analysis view, it seems oil has been moving in a symmetrical triangle over the past two months. Since a symmetrical triangle is a continuation pattern—and the prior move was bullish—we could expect a continuation of the bullish trend for oil.

From an Elliott Wave standpoint, it seems oil has completed its main wave 4, and this wave four structure was a Zigzag correction(ABC/5-3-5).

I expect that oil can break the resistance zone($106-$102) and rise at least up to $107. If the breakout has strong momentum, we could see a move toward the upper line of the symmetrical triangle in the coming weeks.

First Target: $107.00

Second Target: Upper line of symmetrical triangle

Stop Loss(SL): $94.70

Points may shift as the market evolves

What’s your view on oil? Can it hit new all-time highs, or not?

💡 Please respect each other's opinions and express agreement or disagreement politely.

📌U.S. Dollar/Brent Crude OIL Analysis (USDBRO), 4-hour time frame.

🛑 Always set a Stop Loss(SL) for every position you open.

✅ This is just my idea; I’d love to see your thoughts too!

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May 11

Trade active

May 13

Trade closed: target reached

First Target Done

Since oil is moving above the resistance zone($106-$102), there is a possibility that it will touch higher targets.

News from the Middle East, and especially the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, can have a significant impact on the oil trend.