TRADE: USDCAD: BUY@1.29174 Low Risk CAUTIOUS Trade

I am buying this pair at this point for a low risk LONG trade. There is bullish PA on the 1Hr TF which may indicate there is to be a "relief" rally coming. What I mean by "relief" rally is that I am expecting still more downside to come but there is enough buying pressure built up that a brief profit-taking rally may occur.

WAVE COUNT
My wave count on this downtrend is very preliminary and I need more confirmation in order to more confidently make any count. This rally if it occurs can help towards that. But what I am seeing is possible that this will turn out to be a ABC (5-3-5) Zigzag wave 4 and in which what could be happening now is a 5-wave wave (A) of that zigzag. And within this wave (A), it is just finishing the wave iii and will now start a wave iv correction. If that cypher holds, then the cypher completion could mark the end of the wave iv correction and then a wave v impulse down will follow. to finish wave (A). But as I said, this "guess" is just a guess based on experience and really, there is a lack of enough solid data points to confidently label anything as of yet.

4HR CHART - Showing My Wave Count

PATTERN
There is a POTENTIAL cypher that I have drawn here. . If prices drop down more and close past the C point of the cypher, then the pattern is invalidated. The cyppher is a bearish cypher and is a trend continuation pattern so should it be filled, it might represent a good SELL opportunity but will need to wait and see what happens.

MY TRADE PLAN
Buying now though it may be premature.I've titled this trade as a CAUTIOUS trade because it lacks a good structure to which to trade off of. So I am making this trade because of low risk and PA. But the R:R is good. My stops will go below the current C point of the cypher. Because I am expecting this to be a "brief" rally before more downside, my TP1 will be just short o the cypher completion where there is some minor sr structure. At that point, I will review the price action and see if I will close this trade.

*DISCLAIMER:
Please keep in mind that I am not giving any trading signals or trade calls here. Only providing my own trade thoughts for your benefit and insight as to my trading technique and style. Please don't ask if you should or should not take the trade or ask for stop loss and take profit levels. Any SL or TP given on my trades are my own I have used for my trade and are not recommendations for you to use. If you are not sure, then you do not have a trading plan for yourself in place. I suggest you make one before you continue to do any trading!